Maybe I am missing something, but I do not see how the election law can be considered unconstitutional when the constitution clearly stated that the law will determine the electoral system.  (and is remiscient of the judiciary's push - which was reinfoced today - to allow Shafiq to run, see here) 

The decision to dissolve parliament by the court was said to be because "the law governing the parliamentary elections was ruled unconstitutional by a lower court because it breached the principle of equality when it allowed party members to contest a third of seats set aside for independents." This was upheld by the Supreme Constitutional Court.

1. However, Article 38 of the constitutional deceleration from March specially states: 
   
   ينظم القانون حق الترشيح لمجلسى الشعب والشورى وفقا لأى نظام انتخابى يحدده . ويجوز أن يتضمن حدا أدنى لمشاركة المرأة فى المجلسين (AR: http://ow.ly/bAcDC)
   
   "The law (according to ANY electoral provisions/system) determines the conditions that must be met for members of the People's Assembly and Shoura Councils - but it must ensure that females can run in both upper and lower house elections" 
   
   
2. Initially in September an electoral law was passed that reserved one-third of the seats in parliament to be elected as independents, with candidates affiliated with parties banned from contesting them.
   
   
3. However, that was amended in October after SCAF agreed, in a document signed by the participating parties, to alter the law and allow members of political parties to run for the seats to be filled on a first-past-the-post basis.  The deceleration stated: 
   
   "Approval for amending the fifth article of the parliamentary elections law to match the views of the political forces to allow single-seat nominations for political parties candidates." (http://ow.ly/bAd8w)

The only stipulation of equality in the constitution was that women would be allowed to run (one could assume this extended to religions too).  How allowing certain people to run (i.e. not barring party candidates) is claimed as inequality is beyond me!  I would have understood more if the ruling was that the 2/3 of parliament seats that were designated for party candidates barred non-party candidates from running which could potentially be seen as inequality for non-party members.

The only possible explanation I can imagine is if they say that the only equal electoral law is to have the seats 50/50 split between party and individual based but they should have made that clear if that was the case and not waste all of our time and the state's money in running these elections - rather, ensuring that the law was amended at the time and "equal" elections were run.

The Supreme Constitutional Court is the highest judicial power in Egypt and, it alone undertakes the judicial control in respect of the constitutionality of the laws and regulations and shall undertake interpretation of legislative texts.  I cannot fathom how they interpreted this one.

Finally, Clause 30 in the constitution states:
"يؤدى الرئيس أمام مجلس الشعب قبل أن يباشر مهام منصبه اليمين"
"The president will take the following oath before the People's Assembly before assuming his position"

We will see how keen the judiciary is in upholding the constitution rather than abusing it for the benefit of the powers that be.   

So below are comparisons of three different “exit poll” (very loose use of the word!) results that I have come across this morning… See below for tables and details (click on images below the text for larger versions and links are provided to all original sources through highlighted red ink & aggregated pre-elections polls can be found here)

1.   Amr Moussa Campaign: Morsi, Moussa, Fotouh, Sabbahy, Shafiq
2.   Guy with Hala Sarhan on her show: 3 guys neck and neck, Moussa has no chance
3.   @Sandmonkey: Sabahi, Fotouh and Shafiq neck and neck then Morsi then Moussa
4.   “Rights & Citizenship Center” : Morsi & Fotouh tie, then Shafik, then Sabbahi & Moussa tie
5.   @FJPartyOrg : Corroborates Morsi lead but won't release results til after polls close


So numbers 1, 2, 4 and 5 all have Morsi in the lead or tied for it but other percentages vary. 

For Moussa Campaign polls Moussa comes in second place, while the other polls have him faring very poorly.  The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has Morsi and Aboul Fotouh tied with Shafik 

While I have never heard of them before, The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has some details of who leads in which governorates- will paste below as well. (Also, where they polled specifically)

Hala Sarhan guy (apparently from Al-Ahram center) doesn’t specifically state who is in the lead – just that Moussa is doing poorly, specifically “that Amr Moussa has no chance of winning” and that there are three people who are neck and neck in the race – Shafiq, Sabbahi and Aboul Fotouh.  

The above polling seems to corroborate with @Sandmonkey’s – as his article states :” Abol Futouh, Hamdeen & Shafik neck & neck at the top of the race. Then Morsi and fifth comes Amr Moussa.”  However, the pollster on the Hala Sarhan show did not explicitly mention that Morsi was doing poorly - just that three were neck and neck, while Moussa is doing poorly - so while not corroborating Sandmonkey's Moussa conclusion, it does not negate it per se.

Obviously the methodologies are not disclosed (guy in video mentions something about 3,000 phone calls but I believe that applies to the pre-election polling they were doing – unclear).

No official results will be announced until next week, and the early releases could be politically motivated (i.e. intended to influence the vote).

Moussa polls disclaimer: The percent of “others” was not stated in the first poll in the stayed the same as the second polling.

Participation rates: http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/live-updates-candidates-cast-their-ballots

Abu Bakr al-Guindi, head of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), estimated that the projected turnout of the presidential election will be roughly 60%, based on voter behavior on Wednesday.

Guy in Hala Sarhan video claims that participation rates was 12% of registered voters for the first day.

Rights and Citizenship Center Details
النحو التالي :

... محافظة القاهرة :
مدرسة رفاعة الطهطاوي الابتدائية - مدينة نصر .
مدرسة الروضة الإعدادية بنين - مصر القديمة
مدرسة الجبرتي الابتدائية - منشية ناصر

محافظة الاسكندرية :
مدرسة السلام الصناعية - الرمل .
مدرسة الإخلاص الإعدادية بنات - محرم بك.
المعهد الديني الأزهري بكرموز .
مركز شباب سموحة .

محافظة الشرقية :
مدرسة السادات الإعدادية بنات - الزقازيق .
مدرسة جمال عبد الناصر الثانوية بنات - ديرب نجم.

محافظة الإسماعيلية :
مدرسة علي بن أبي طالب - أبو صوير .
مدرسة التل الكبير الابتدائية بنين .

محافظة أسوان :
مدرسة باحثة البادية الابتدائية - أسوان .
مدرسة نجع هلال الابتدائية - نجع هلال.
المدرسة الابتدائية بجزيرة سهيل - ادفو .

وشملت العينة التي أجري عليها الاستطلاع 1311 ناخبا موزعين كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة 327
محافظة الاسكندرية 414
محافظة الشرقية 275
محافظة الاسماعيلية 158
محافظة أسوان 137

وكانت النتائج العامة كالتالي :
د. محمد مرسي : 22.7%
د. عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح : 22.2%
ف . أحمد شفيق : 14.4%
أ. حمدين صباحي : 9.6%
أ. عمرو موسى : 9.4%
مرشحون آخرون : 14.8%
رفض ذكر مرشحه : 5.6%
أبطل صوته : 1.3%

بينما جاء ترتيب المرشحين في كل محافظة على حدة كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة :
أحمد شفيق
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
محمد مرسي

محافظة الاسكندرية :
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
حمدين صباحي
محمد مرسي

محافظة الشرقية :
محمد مرسي
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
أحمد شفيق

محافظة الإسماعيلية:
محمد مرسي
حمدين صباحي
عمرو موسى

محافظة أسوان :
عمرو موسى
أحمد شفيق
محمد مرسي 

UPDATE 2 (Monday evening): There are a total 590,838 registered voters on the official election website and the countries that are included in the below figures account for 575,004 registered votes (i.e. the data accounts for 97% of registered voters).   The below's analysis includes vote tally of 296,232 yielding an overall participation rate of 50.1% - of registered voters.

That leaves only 11,798 registered voters remaining and, assuming an equal participation rate, would translate into 5,915 votes - which are relatively insignificant so the below can be taken as final results.  (Click on image below for much larger version).

Country by country data comes from @hany2m's Google Docs spreadsheet here

Results from Jeddah have been published here (seems pretty valid to me) - hence, I have provided an updated chart... (The actual percentages of votes by candidate are likely slightly lower as I have not included the less successful candidates in the analysis in the interest of time - these should not substantially impact the percentages though)

Older results below:

You can download the above document from this link here

For me it is about making a statement regarding the principles we want to see in Egypt and the vision for a future.  The dirty game of politics (campaign financing, false promises, being two faced) always weeds out the good men - we have a chance here to vote for one.

Moreover, there will most likely be a runoff election at which point you can choose the lesser of two evils; at that point when you choose the lesser of two evils, at least remember that it is still an evil. 

The only actual argument I have ever heard against Bastwisy in terms of capabilities or principles is that he is too weak to be president of this country.  However, have we not tried "strong" men across the region, for decades? How well has that served us?  Moreover, we have seen weak, sheepish men turn into strong men in their own countries, albeit negatively, as is the case with Asad in Syria.

One would hope that with fairness, justice and reformation of institutions that we could see him gain strength from the populace itself.

I see this directly tied to their control of the economy… Without having oversight via an independent, non-military governor there is no way that military influence is checked.  Rather, these governors facilitate the expansion of the military’s economic reach on a local level, which is compounded by their (hopefully previous) unchecked influence on the executive branch.

From January to August 2011 (appointments by Mubarak during uprising to appease demands of protesters) there were 20 military governors – constituting 74% of the total governors.  From September 2011 through today, there are 14 military governors*, constituting 54% of the total positions.

Some additional notes/caveats:

* Cairo and Alexandria, while they have non-military governors, they do have deputy governors that are military - thus, I have counted them as military governorates as I find it hard to believe that the doctors would trump the say of the military.  I could be wrong but that is my assumption for now which is reinforced by the alleged influence General Sayed El-Barie had when he was secretary general of Giza (superseding the governor himself on a decision.  

Story worth reading just to see who exactly is being appointed to these positions: When Aswan’s Sayed El-Barie was also Secretary General of Giza – and there is testimony from people at the time that he would only let projects be given to “select” companies - http://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=48491&IssueID=588)

The list in "previous governorates" column is nowhere near complete.  I was just curious as to whether there would be any cross-over from one appointment to the next and, not surprisingly, there is – and quite a bit of it at that.  The governors with previous roles written next to them are simply spot checks, I would guess that all the others have had “civilian” leadership roles in one way or another (deputy governors, secretary generals, etc.)

The New Valley governorate takes up approximately 50% (44% to be exact) of Egypt's landmass - that one is not only headed by a general, but by a (former) member of SCAF (see link)

It is a side point given everything else, but just another illustration of how dissociated our former leadership was with reality - the sense of self-aggrandizement and the squandering of funds that could benefit the population as a whole.  (Yes, not like these cars can feed the country but it illustrates the mentality behind purchasing decisions the government took - i.e. spare no costs for the Mubaraks).

The above video shows the sheer scale of Egypt's (i.e. Mubarak's) presidential motorcade, it is almost unfathomable.  Many of us have been stuck in traffic for hours (I can remember several myself) due to his royal highness' desire to go from point A to point B.  

“When Mr Mubarak travelled his entourage included scores of cars. Any time he crossed Cairo, much of the capital would be roped off with traffic stopped for half an hour before he passed and 10,000 policemen standing along the route. Sharp shooters stood on the rooftops, a helicopter circled overhead and an ambulance accompanied him. A recent inventory of the presidential vehicle pool under Mr Mubarak released in Egyptian newspapers said that it included 950 vehicles. Other African leaders might well note, however, that Mr Mubarak is no longer in power.”

So in the video above he merely took out a little less than 10% of the total inventory.  Just for comparison's sake, compare this to other world leaders:



1. President of the United States:  Wikipedia states that the presidential motorcade consists of "about 45 vehicles" - I have seen the president drive back into the White House and the number was considerably less than that but I guess it depends on the occasion.

2. France: Based on this video, there appear to be about 10 vehicles and 5 motorcycles

3. Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni:  Takes between eight or nine cars, a couple of mine-resistant South African armoured personnel carriers and a large silver Mercedes truck with a mobile lavatory

4. Liberian president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf: On a trip to church he took three four-wheel-drives from the Special Security Service, two pickup trucks from the Liberian national police, and an off-roader carrying Nigerian troops from the United Nations peacekeeping mission

5. Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe:  Travels with two motorcyclists up front who clear the road, arriving at high speed then stopping by their road, their lights flashing and sirens blaring. Three blacked-out Mercedes saloons follow, one with the number plate "Zim1". Finally two pick-up trucks appear, with ten or more armed guards in them.

6. King Mswati III of Swaziland. The Swazi regal convoy can be up to 20 cars long. The king's favourite vehicles include a $625,000 Rolls Royce, a $500,000 Maybach 62 and a BMW X6. He also has 20 Mercedes Benz S600 Pullman Guards, costing $250,000 each, many of them armoured. Warrior guards in traditional dress including an "Emajobo" or loin skin travel with the king.

7. Sierra Leone's Koroma: "A motorcyclist came first. Mr Koroma followed in a Mercedes saloon. Most of the other six vehicles in the procession were gleaming black 70 Series Toyota Land Cruisers."
8. Valdimir Putin, Russia: Finally, found someone to compete with our scale.  This video here shows about 85 vehicles (and seems there were some more following), others show about 30-50 (here and here)... I suppose we kept that tradition from our alliance to the USSR days...

9. Saudi Arabia's King Abdallah: The videos make it hard to count (as they are filmed from within) but looks to be quite the motorcade... (See here, here and here)

Source: Economist article for Mubarak and African leaders

While I am not saying that the MB are already the NDP, one cannot deny that granting the group complete control over the executive and legislative branches of government (taking into account the historic lack of judiciary to be indpendent) will inevitably lead to a similar political situation.  

Let us stop relying on new names/faces to be better than those before them rather than changing the system to ensure that the new politicians cannot repeat past transgressions.  Ensuring competition and setting up checks/balances is the first step in doing so.

I tend to believe that, if Clinton, Kennedy, Chirac, etc. - or most "great" world leaders - were in systems that enabled them to be dictators and command unbridled power they would have.  It is not that French or American or Indian politicians are inherently "better" or less corrupt than their Egyptian counterparts but rather that the system is setup to prevent them from indulging in these tendencies.

• Active competition weakens the ability of any one interest or faction to dominate its own arena and to intrude unduly upon the workings of the other. Moreover, citizens who have real economic and political alternatives will be less vulnerable to exploitation, and thus in a better position to resist corruption and respond effectively to it. 
• In the US,  the seperation of powers and bicameralism are competitive devices, as are the system of checks and balances implemented through the constitution.
• When protected from competition, even talented and well-intentioned public officials are motivated to act in ways intended to increase their income, authority, prestige, or leisure (Borcherding 1977). 
  
• Competition brings out the best in people and organizations, not because it appeals to greed or selfishness, but because the desire to innovate, earn the esteem of others, and be best in one’s field is deeply and widely instilled (Olson 2000; Novak 1996).
  
• “[Competition is] superior not only because it is in most circumstances the most efficient method known but even more because it is the only method by which our activities can be adjusted to each other without coercive or arbitrary intervention of authority.” (Hayek, The Road to Serfdom)
  
• "Democracy is a competitive political system in which competing leaders and organizations define the alternatives of public policy in such a way that the public can participate in the decision-making process." (Schattschneider, 1960)
  
• "Modern political democracy is a system of governance in which rulers are held accountable for their actions in the public realm by citizens, acting indirectly through the competition and cooperation of their elected representatives." (Schmitter and Karl, 1991)

Ideally, over time an independent judiciary would help accomplish this (as occurred in the US during Marbury vs. Madison legal battle) in which "Chief Justice John Marshall established the principle of judicial review, an important addition to the system of “checks and balances” created to prevent any one branch of the Federal Government from becoming too powerful."  However, it is important to note that the judiciary as a third branch of government was not ingrained in the US constitution but rather was fought for by the courts themselves.

Shafiq Candidacy:

Regarding whether Shafiq will be eligible to run for president needs to take into account a number of key parameters including the passing of the disenfranchisement bill by parliament, ratification by SCAF, SPEC approval, constitutional court consideration and (most importantly) the deadline for the final candidate list.

1. Earlier this month the “Disenfranchisement Law” (see below for details of text) was passed in parliament that barred Mubarak era top officials from participating in the presidential election as candidates.
2. SCAF approved the “Disenfranchisement Law” (officially called the Corrupting of Political Life Law) on April 24th, 2012.  SCAF then sent it for a final vote in parliament (where one can assume it will be approved). 
3. However, while approving there were rumors that they “may allow Shafiq to run”.  (http://ow.ly/awicN) 
4. On Tuesday, April 25th there were some rumors that SPEC had officially disqualified Shafiq (e.g. http://ow.ly/awhD8 and http://ow.ly/awii2). 
5. However, late on Tuesday Reuters reported that "the presidential electoral committee (SPEC) headed by Farouk Soltan accepts the appeal of former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, allowing him to contest the presidential race," state news agency MENA reported. (http://ow.ly/awg1c)
6. While there is some discussion of the case being referred to constitutional court it does not seem that would have an impact as: “The Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) is not subject to judicial authority pursuant to Article 28 of the constitutional declaration and has full authorities either to accept or to eliminate presidential candidates.”(http://ow.ly/awhtX)
7. “In the meantime, Ahmed Shafiq received his presidential candidacy voting-symbol, the ladder, from the SPEC headquarters Tuesday afternoon .” (http://ow.ly/awhD8)
8. April 26th is the day the final list of candidates must be submitted by SPEC and that list cannot be challenged after that date.  This is illustrated by the fact that “legal experts say that if the amendment is published second, it might have no legal bearing on the candidate list, allowing Mr Shafiq to stand next month (http://ow.ly/awiwT).  Moreover, “Youm al-Sabaa, said the law would be announced in an official gazette on Thursday and would take effect on Friday.” (http://ow.ly/awiwT)   

So the official list of candidates is here http://ow.ly/awdsP (currently at 12) and Ahmed Shafiq is not one of those listed.  Additionally, the list of rejected candidates is here (http://ow.ly/awiHa)  – yet it also does not include Ahmed Shafiq. 

The www.elections.eg website is actually quite robust and detailed.  Sometimes the materials take a few days to post but it is quite thorough.  While this post focuses on “the Shafiq Question” –  there are some interesting links that I will post below for those interested.



The “Disenfranchisement Law” Details:

• “The decree, numbered 17 for 2012, declared that “those who have worked for the past 10 years as the president, the vice president, prime minister, head of the deposed National Democratic Party, its political office or its general assembly, are banned by this law from practicing their political rights for 10 years, starting February 11, 2012,” read the decree that was published Tuesday.
  

Other tidbits from the www.elections.eg website:

• http://ow.ly/asn7A: Detailed spreadsheet with Omar Suleiman’s signatures and the discrepancies by type and governorate (pretty good!)
  
• http://ow.ly/asnmH: Step by step documentation of how Abu Ismail’s mother’s US passport was confirmed (mainly foreign ministry requests)
  

The two changes below keeps the current active number of SCAF members at TWENTY-TWO and brings the former members to TWO…

Gain: General Taher Abdallah who is Head of the Engineering Agency / Commander of the Army's Engineering Department...  His two claims to fame were denying that SCAF had anything to do with the foreign funding case, in addition to recent discussions around low-income housing construction - allegedly costing LE1B from the army's budget per this Ahram article. 


Loss: Tarek al-Mahdy, current Governor of New Valley (appointed August, 2011) and former member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, who served on General Supervisor of State TV at Maspero for SCAF .  He recently had a shootout (against some 19th century looking guns) in March 2012. (Started working on a profile on Tarek El Mahdy, click here including interviews, videos and news) 

Below is an interview circa May 2011 with General Taher Abdallah while he was still on SCAF.  He discusses the "evil forces" behind the chaos in Egypt and the "hidden hands" that are destructing Egypt. (I started the interview where the General starts talking).

A blog post documenting sourcing behind the other 22 member names can be found here

See full list of current and former SCAF members HERE (http://www.ducoht.org/scaf.html)