Click on each of the above to go to the specific section - will try to post much more in the coming few days (and please let me know if you find any errors in the meantime)...
Summary of Key Correlation Findings
- It appears that the “get out the vote” campaigns of Shafiq and Morsi worked as they are the only two candidates to positively correlate with rurality, (both strongly correlated) whereas all other candidates showed negative correlation with rurality.
- Shafiq appears to have a broad support base with regards to demographic variables – several demographic variables showing no correlation with his vote percentage (additionally, only rurality was strongly correlated)
- Sabbahi has a very specific voter base it seems – literate, urban, educated and “pro-revolution” (the last one based on his negative correlation with referendum yes votes). Additionally, he seems to have garnered the sympathies of the unemployed.
- Sabbahi seems to have taken many of the votes that would have gone to Moussa based on the fact that they share the exact same profile with regards to demographic characteristics.
- It appears the Islamist push was a large reason that the referendum went through given that both Morsi and Aboul Fotouh correlate with a high percent voting yes in referendum. Additionally, apparently the military effect on that result was not as high given no Shafiq vote correlation (if one assumes he is the military candidate).
Notes for Candidate and Demographics Correlations
- The demographic statistics are based on reporting by CAPMAS, some of which may not be the most accurate (for example, male unemployment ranges between 4%-14% - which is unlikely to be very accurate – and may explain the lack of any strong correlations)
- The CAPMAS data is only available on a per governorate basis – however, governorates are relatively large and do not exhibit uniform demographics across the whole governorate
- Given that demographic data is only available on a governorate basis, the vote tallies are also based on governorate level – however, districts within the same governorate often exhibit disparate voting (i.e one district in Cairo may have voted for Shafiq in the majority with another district voting for Morsi)
- A more refined analysis with more granular data would likely produce even stronger correlations than witnessed on that done based on governorate level
- For Sabbahi, I have excluded Kafr El Sheikh from the correlation analysis as he was MP that explains his high performance there, the demographic characteristics of the governorate are unlikely to have had a large impact (and, given that assumption, they would skew the rest of the data)