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Circa 1Q2012:
(Links to Gallup constantly updated articles analyzing poll numbers: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Egypt.aspx)
Great Gallup Poll analysis by Gallup's Dalia Mogahed
The real change is in the rising expectations Egyptians place first on themselves. Whereas 81 percent of Egyptians said they could "get ahead by working hard" in late 2010, this number jumped to 93 percent after the revolution and stayed at that level. In the country once known for its people's quiet resignation, today 90 percent say that if there is a problem in their community, it is up to them to fix it. And after an election seen as fair by most, the percentage who think they have not only the responsibility, but also the power to make change surged from 55 percent in September to 74 percent in December 2011. Just months before Jan. 25, 2011, Egyptians' average evaluation of their present lives dropped to a new low. Far more concerning, however, was that people expected their future lives to be no better, rating them nearly as poorly as their present ones. This changed after the revolution. Although an ailing economy and delayed reform made life harder after Mubarak's ouster, Egyptians' expectations for their future lives significantly rose, even as their satisfaction with the present declined. The newfound faith in the future has endured a tumultuous year of transition, presenting Egypt's leaders with the challenge of meeting great expectations. Majorities believe in the honesty of their elections and that their lives are better because of Mubarak's resignation. The public even seems to think that the country's economic tailspin has slowed It also suggests the country is ready for an end to military rule. While the vast majority of Egyptians still have confidence in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), most also expect them to relinquish power to a civilian government as soon as Egyptians elect a president. This is true regardless of political affiliation. The new majority-Islamist parliament must … not misinterpret its victory as a popular ideological mandate. The Islamists' newly discovered public support is not the product of decades of unwavering philosophical followership, but the outcome of weeks of disciplined, effective campaigning in a country of undecideds.As such, the ballots cast in Egypt's parliamentary election likely reflect a vote of confidence for the parties perceived as best able to deliver on the public's priorities for the next government -- priorities that are not necessarily ideological. This means that the new government must focus on their constituents' main concerns, which, whether they support liberals or Islamists, focus on economic development, employment, and stability, not saving Egyptians from moral decay.Supporters of secular and religious parties are remarkably similar on many of the key questions facing Egypt, from domestic priorities to foreign policy. The Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party supporters are at least as likely as those of the Free Egyptians Party, a self-proclaimed liberal group, to favor including fundamental protections for freedom of speech, religion, and assembly in a new constitution. Again, supporters of the Freedom and Justice Party are virtually identical to those of the Free Egyptians Party on questions of women's rights, even those explicitly regulated by religious guidelines like divorce. Supporters of the conservative al-Nour Party, as well as those of the Freedom and Justice Party, are little different from those of the Free Egyptians Party, a group founded by Naguib Sawiris, a Christian, on reported interreligious acceptance.While the public is split on whether the Camp David Accords are good or bad for the country, this same divide cuts across political persuasions. This suggests that Israel and its supporters will need to engage the Egyptian public on the future of relations between the two countries, rather than seek to empower a particular political party believed to be friendlier to Egypt's Jewish neighbor. Cross Party Women's Rights Spprt![]() Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? [Percentage agree shown.]
A. Women and men should have equal legal rights.
B. Women should be allowed to hold any job for which they are qualified outside the home.
C. Women should have the right to initiate a divorce.
Cross Party Religious Tolerance![]() Using a 5-point scale, where 5 means strongly agree and 1 means strongly disagree, how much do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
- I always treat people of other religious faiths with respect.
- Most religious faiths make a positive contribution to society.
- I would not object to a person of a different religious faith moving next door.
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Brighter Future![]() Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you (0-10). On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time, assuming that the higher the step the better you feel about your life, and the lower the step the worse you feel about it? Which step comes closest to the way you feel? Just your best guess, on which step do you think you will stand in the future, say about five years from now? [Average shown.]”)
Optimism![]() In your opinion, will conditions for each of the following improve, decline, or stay the same as a result of President Mubarak's resignation? [Percentage "improve" shown.]
SCAF/Miliatary![]() Do you think each of the following is a good thing or a bad thing for the country? (The military remaining involved in politics after the presidential election.)
Islamist Support Recent![]() Please indicate whether you support or do not support each of the following political parties or groups
Cross Party Priorities Similar![]() What are the two most important issues or challenges that the next government should address when it takes office? [First response shown.
Cross party Freedom Demands![]() Suppose that someday you were asked to help draft a new constitution for a new country. As I read you a list of possible provisions that might be included in a new constitution, would you tell me whether you would probably agree or not agree with the inclusion of each of these provisions? [Percentage agree shown.]
--Freedom of speech: allowing all citizens to express their opinion on the political, social, and economic issues of the day.
--Freedom of religion: allowing all citizens to observe any religion of their choice and to practice its teachings and beliefs.
--Freedom of assembly: allowing all citizens to assemble or congregate for any reason or in support of any cause.
Cross Party Views on Israel![]() Suppose that someday you were asked to help draft a new constitution for a new country. As I read you a list of possible provisions that might be included in a new constitution, would you tell me whether you would probably agree or not agree with the inclusion of each of these provisions? [Percentage agree shown.]
--Freedom of speech: allowing all citizens to express their opinion on the political, social, and economic issues of the day.
--Freedom of religion: allowing all citizens to observe any religion of their choice and to practice its teachings and beliefs.
--Freedom of assembly: allowing all citizens to assemble or congregate for any reason or in support of any cause.
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Gallup Poll showing shift towards Islamists in December polls: (http://ow.ly/8F7yX)
The Freedom and Justice Party, the official political party of the Muslim Brotherhood, found support among 50% of Egyptians in December. Thirty-one percent expressed support for the Nour Party, the Salafi party. The higher levels of public political support, which rose suddenly after consistent low support, do not necessarily suggest an increase in support for either party's ideology. The same Gallup surveys that showed Egyptians shifting toward the parties found their opinions largely unchanged in terms of their views on key issues. Egyptians most often mentioned inflation/lack or shortage of money, lack of jobs/unemployment, and safety issues as the most important problem facing their families in multiple surveys through 2011, including in December. Few -- 1% or less -- mentioned moral decay. Further, despite the increase in support for the Salafi party, 95% of Egyptians in the December survey said they have confidence in al-Azhar University, an institution that is openly and historically hostile toward the Salafi movement.
When asked what are the most important challenges or issues that the next government should address when it takes office, respondents in December referred primarily to employment/employing youth, the economy/cost of living increase, and security/stability -- essentially the same top issues they said were facing their families. These were the three most important priorities for supporters of the most liberal party on the Egyptian political spectrum (the Free Egyptians Party), the most socially conservative one (Nour Party), and Egyptians at large.
The parliamentary election results in Egypt provide many lessons for Egyptian political forces. Large numbers of previously undecided Egyptians decided to vote for Islamist political parties, even though the most important problems that Egyptians cited did not involve the implementation of Islamic law or other political demands of the Muslim Brotherhood or Salafi groups. Rather, they cited more day-to-day issues such as inflation and employment. That pragmatism indicates that the country's next elections could be equally surprising -- if Egyptians believe that other political forces can address their problems more effectively, it is likely many of them will not refrain from switching their votes from one party to another.
Additionally, that pragmatism suggests that political forces in Egypt in general need to consider the grassroots relevance of their campaigns. At this early stage in Egyptian democracy, the public is looking for parties that will deliver on policies that address the Egyptian people's key concerns, and not necessarily ideology. Political parties of nearly any ideology -- Islamist, liberal, secular, leftist, or other -- have a chance to succeed, if they convince Egyptians they can actually address the the public's major concerns.
Circa 4Q2011:

DEDI Poll: Second Election Round Survey
(http://dedi.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/4th-Poll-Press-Release.pdf)
Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo (November 2011) http://www.ahram.org.eg/Revolution-Parliament/News/110989.aspx
SCAF
وانخفضت نسبة التقيم لاداء المجلس الاعلي القوات المسلحة الي40.6% خلال اكتوبر مقارنة بــ44.6% خلال اغسطس وبلغت نسبة الثقة في قيام المجلس العسكري بمهام المرحلة الانتقالية بخصوص توفير الظروف المناسبة للانتقال الديمقراطي الي89.4% مقابل92.8% ونقل السلطة لحكومة مدنية الي88.3% مقابل99.2% واجراء انتخابات حرة91.7% في اكتوبر مقابل95.7% ومحاكمة رموز النظام السابق الي78.9% في اكتوبر مقابل86.1% في اغسطس.
"The approval rating of the SCAF was 40.6% in October vs. 44.6% in August, and the percent of Egyptians confident in the military council to provide the necessary conditions for the transition to democracy decreased to 89.4% from 92.8%. The percent confident in the SCAF to pass authority to a civilian government decreased to 88.3% from 99.2% and confidence in their ability to enact free elections declined from 95.7% to 91.7%. The percent confident in the SCAF’s ability to try members of the old regime in court declined from 86.1% in August to 78.9% in October."
Nature of State: (civil vs religious)
وعن الطبيعة المفضلة للدولة قال44.3% دولة ديمقراطية مدينة مقابل49.9% ودولة اسلامية6,45% مقابل42.9% ودولة قوية ولو كانت غير ديمقراطية10.1% مقابل7.2%
"As for the preferred nature of the state, 44.3% in October said they would prefer a civil state, down from 49.9% in August, while 45.6% said they would prefer an Islamic state (up from 42.9%), and the number of people who preferred a strong government (regardless of its democratic nature) increased to 10.1% from 7.2%."
Other Information
Parliamentary voting expectations are pretty far off with FJP in the lead but Wafd in second with 26% of the cote. HOWEVER, interestingly, when asked which party they thought did the most activity in their sorrounding areas the order was: FJP, Noor, Egyptian Bloc, Wafd then Wasat
59% of respondents said Egyptians are ready for democracy 37% think that within one year Egypt will be a democracy, 45% think it will be a partial democracy and 14% think it will resemble the old regime
42% think that Egypt will be more authoritarian in the future (not sure how that squares with results from line above)
52% of citizens feel "annoyance" due to the circumstances Egypt is currently going through with 17% hopeful of a solution to the problems and only 14% "confident"
Presidential poll: Amr Moussa (41%), Omar Suleiman (7%), Salim El Awa (6%), army candidate (15%)
28% of those surveyed thought that there should be more individual candidate seats in parliamentary elections
University of Maryland 2011 Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey (http://newsdesk.umd.edu/pdf/2011/telhamipoll2011.pdf)
"A plurality of Egyptians (43%) believe that the military rulers are working to slow or reverse the gains of the revolution, while only 21% believe that they are working to advance these gains, and 14% believe that the military authorities are indifferent."
2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt http://dedi.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/Voter-poll-survey.pdf
• What I cannot ever understand is how 10% of people would vote for OMAR SULEIMAN? izayyy yaani? I don't get it... Moreover, amazing how the former regimes campaign against Baradei had such a substantial impact (-58% favorability) whereas I bet had there been polls prior to his calls against the government of Mubarak his favorability would have been high (like Zeweill's)
• Stability/security is high on the voters’ agenda. In September 40% of Egyptians state that security/stability is the most important issue that the needs to addressed - an increase from 27% in August. The other two issues that are high on the agenda are ”reducing daily living expenses” (23%) and ”unemployment” (21%). However, it is important to note that the September interviews began only two days after the Israeli embassy incident – likely exacerbating those concerns amongst many.
• A clear majority of 65% wants martial law imposed to address problems in their neighborhood. Only 34% favors civil law.
Parliamentary Elections:
• In September, 73% of the population over the age of 18 intends to vote compared with 82% in August. Rreferendum in March (at the heat of the situation, relatively simple/straightforward choices) had 41% turnout – although 73% figure is not inconsistent with other countries figures for lower house elections
• 62% of the voters that intend to vote in elections have decided which party to vote for. In august there were 43% decided voters. (Large jump of 20% of the populace deciding on their candidates within a month – I do not think the parties had determined where they would be fielding candidates – district wise – at time of the poll so hard to say you are decided in that case, although the Freedom and Justice party I think had said they are going to nominate candidates for every district)
• The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) increases their popular support for upcoming parliamentary elections - enjoying support from 39% of the decided voters in September up from 31,5% in August.
• Al Wafd stands to gain 20% of the votes in September up from 14,8% in August.
• As the elections day is getting nearer and awareness about the political parties increases the population views the party more favorably. The FJP and the Al Wafd party also have the best favorablity.
• Only TWO parties are seen as favorable by the majority of Egyptians (statistically significantly at least) which are Wafd and FJP (ikhwan) - given what people believe is SCAFs ultimate desire, this will work out quite well for them (former NDP allegedly in Wafd and alliance with Islamists for FJP) they have done a decent job (although you can argue they had no hand in it) of discrediting liberal groups and all the other parties... Also, "Egypt National Party" (former NDP) so unfavorable.. but people were asked about the PARTY ITSELF, I don't think it reflects the voters identification with the individual people running in their constituency so while yes on the face of things people may say screw the NDP, when they are presented with an individual person who may have been former NDP but who they think did decently or gives them money or whatever they they will re-elect... (i guess I am confused - in the party based list, 75% of the seats, will voters know the name of their district candidates or is it a blind vote just based on the party? I think they identify the name which may help the NDP party if they have local strongmen)
Current Affairs:
• Egyptians view bullying, illegal drugs, robbery and illegal weapons as serious problems in their neighborhood. Around 40% of the Egyptian views these four issues as serious problems.
• 65% of the Egyptian either agrees or strongly agrees that protesters should be prevented from using the Tahrir Square.
• Egyptians favor a measured response to the crisis with Israel using diplomatic channels. The population wants to keep the peace treaty with Israel, but favor a renegotiation. Following the killing of Egyptian soldiers on the Israeli-Egyptian border, the stance is that the response should be an apology from Israel. The people morever want to put pressure on Israel in relation to the question of Palestine.
• Egyptians trust the judicial system to properly deal with the trail of former President Mubarak. A clear majority of 67% agree that the trail of Former President Mubarak should be completed no matter what and 78% are willing to accept whatever the outcome of the trail is.
Presidential Elections:
• There has been little development in the support for the presidential candidates and Amr Moussa still has a commanding lead in the presidential race with 45% of decided voters. Ahmed Shafiq is second with 13% of the decided voters.
Circa 2Q2011
International Republican Institute: Organization is US gov funded that does democracy promotion globally - mentioned in several articles and wikileaks as having provided financing for some of the protesters in the revolts (http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20Survey%20of%20Egyptian%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2014-27,%202011.pdf)
Most interesting findings was China preferred over US substantially, union leaders aren't too influential, expectations for economic are high - likely a potential problem area, apparently people don't care too much about political reform (although I truly think only way to improve economic situation is through accountability, which requires political reform),
1. Poll skews slightly older
2. Asked about leaders who exhibit influence
5. As various metrics have shown, around 40% of Egyptians live underneath poverty (metrically defined as $2 a day, in this case defined as "I have trouble feeding myself and my family and buying even the most essential things for survival.)
6. 4 out of 5 top citations for "biggest problem facing Egypt" related to the economy (unemployment, corruption, wages/salaries, poverty)
7. Things improving over past year: corruption, political reform, independent media
8. Things getting worse over past year: education, independent civil society, living standards, health care, direct foreign investment, unemployment, security
9. Education and Healthcare are seen as the top two priorities (beating out democracy, infrastructure and business development)
10. Over 75% claim they are "very" or "somewhat confident" that the current gov. is able to address the main issues facing Egypt today
11. 51% believe parliamentary elections in september are occuring at the right time (with the remainder split between too soon and not soon enough)
12. 95% of people "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote
13. Fragmentation of parliamentary votes is pretty crazy! No party gets over 6% (and that is the "independent" and "wafd" parties)... Some interesting ones are: MB at 2% only!
14. When followup question about "how strongly you support party" 65% said "Don't know" with only 18% strongly supporting! Pretty open field...
15. The court system is the only instituation that has a positive approval rating (+12%) with political parties (-62%), government media (-47%) , indepdnent media (-20%), Business community (-48%)
16. People LOOKING for change... ~70% say they would be more likely to support a new party (only 14% said they would likely support an esablished/existing party)
17. Very impressive: Only ~22% would said they would NOT vote for a candidate under the age of 35 for parliament or municpial/governate councils (i.e. does not include president)
18. Only 6% of people would "not support" or "somewhat not support" the actions that caused Hosni's resignation (with 82% very supportive of the events)
19. 89% think that things in Egypt will get "much" or "somewhat" better... with only 5% saying it will get worse in any capacity
20. Pretty representative poll with 72% of respondents voted YES to referendum and 9% voting NO
21. Apparently, 30% of Egyptians participated in the protests in some way
With only 1% of people participating in "workers strikes" while 25% of people participated in street protests
22. Twitter matters NOTHING (literally rounds to 0%) to Egyptians! haha "twitter revolution"
23. Facebook affected about 10% substantially
26. Al Masry Al Youm reaches is read by over 20% of population at least (17% read it as primary medium)
(Additional notes with some data not presented in report: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20IRI%20Egypt%20Index,%20April%2014-27,%202011.pdf)
Gallup Abu Dhabi: (http://www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/147902/BRIEF-BILINGUAL-Egypt-Tahrir-Transition.aspx) - Worth a read with good recommendations from a political perspective in the latter half of document (focus on "security" message, use TV to educate citizens, use the judiciary to keep things clean given their support, ensure that growth delivers to masses through facilitating entreupeneurship)
Egyptians are half as likely now (11%) as before the revolution (23%) to say they would move permanently to another country if given the opportunity [The change from fall 2010 to spring 2011 in desire to stay in Egypt reveals a level of commitment to the country that hasn’t been evident in the recent past.]
69% of Egyptians now say they have confidence in the country’s financial institutions, compared with 43% before the revolution
Egyptians are also more likely now than in late 2010 to say they think they can get ahead by working hard (93% versus 81%
Egyptians are three times as likely a month and a half after Mubarak’s resignation to say they believe the country’s economy is getting better (46%) than they were in the fall of 2010 (15%),
1. people are more optimistic (previously we were getting more pessimistic every quarter, now a huge boost in optimism) and more people want to stay in the country
2. People still want religion to play a role... While they are wary of having it control the state, they are less likely to want it completely removed - rather, an advisory role is preferred, however, far easier said than done!
3. Peoples belief that peaceful means can bring about positive change has increased SUBSTANTIALLY (goes well to put the phenomenon of fundamentalism/extremism as the product of our political situations, not something culturally innate or religiously expounded)
4. We open to other religions - second most arab country after Lebanon and substantially ahead of most Others (+17% over Syria, +48% over Saudi)
5. "Americans’ overall favorable opinion of Egypt bounced back, with 60% of the U.S. public saying it had a favorable opinion of Egypt, and 70% saying the same about the country’s people. This is comparable to the percentage of Americans who said they had a favorable opinion of Israel (69%), and much higher than those who said the same about Syria (32%)."
6. Conflicting results on media usage (this poll reports State TV was most watched whereas other poll said AlJazeera was)
7. Only 17% of protestors had internet access at home (I think this aligns with national averages, so the protestors apparently were average Egyptians for everyone who says not)
8. Completely conflicting information on political parties vs above poll (MB @ 15%, NDP @ 10% and Wafd @ 9%)
9. People think economy getting worse, less satisfied with healthcare and housing (vs last year)
10. So apparently, ACTUAL CRIME has gone down (people reporting money stolen or assaulted in past year) HOWEVER, percent who don't "feel safe walking alone" shot up 2X (17% to 39%)...
11. VAST VAST majority do not want US sending aid to political groups (even those who see US as a model for Egypt, 85% do not want US funding political parties)
12. 90% of Egyptians expect next polls to be fair and free
13. 94% of Egyptians have confidence in the military
14. Despite solid high level growth rates prior to revolution, only 20% thought economic conditions were improving
Pew Poll: http://pewglobal.org/files/2011/04/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Egypt-Report-FINAL-April-25-2011.pdf
(Pew has weird polls from the Middle East - I remember a poll from years ago, often uniquely cited by people with a specific point to prove, that something like 80% of Egyptians supported stoning for adultery and cutting hands for stealing which doesn't jive with anything I know or any of the other polls I've ever seen)
75% of Egyptians have a "very" or "somewhat" favorable view of MB. this poll says only 77% thought Mubarak leaving was good thing, that more people say democracy is more important than economics, 23% getting info from social networks, 35% of high income Egyptians agree with fundamentalists - vs. only 20% of the low income Egyptians)Lots more data in the last poll but covers much of same ground as above polls...
Gallup Abu Dhabi Poll with an empirical analysis of social and economic conditions in the months before the uprising on Jan. 25, 2011 http://www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/146888/brief-egypt-arithmetic-revolution.aspx
International Peace Institute: http://www.ipinst.org/images/pdfs/egypt-poll-results-april2011.pdf
Based on their stats of people questioned the sample had 11% illiterate which isn't exactly representative, but then again it was self-identified illiteracy... (Additionally was a phone interview so likely some bias with regards to that: "The poll, conducted for the New York International Peace Institute (IPI) by Charney Research, was based on 615 telephone interviews among a random sample of adults across Egypt between 9 and 20 March 2011" Also, looking at parties favorobility results were somewhat off (Wafd:46%; Muslim Brotherhood:38% favorable, but almost as many unfavorable; Tagammu, Ghad, and nationalist Nasserist parties 30s; NDP 26% favourable, though it was also the only party whose unfavorable opinions were also high at 48 per cent)... To be fair though, the Wafd vote likely swung towards the Kotla (but still doesn't necessarily explain where the Noor vote came from, but many suggest that the poor are the ones that voted for them and they may have been excluded from phone interviews - also, given the potential communist appeal to the lower classes maybe Noor took those votes??? Far fetched but can't see where else they would come from.. NDP??)
At a time when signs of friction have emerged between the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) and groups of protesters in Tahrir Square, the poll also showed that the Egyptian army remains very popular, with 77 per cent of those polled saying they held a favourable view of it.
82% said they felt that Egypt was going in the right direction, compared to only 10 per cent who said it was going in the wrong direction. Seventy-nine per cent said they were satisfied with the interim government's performance.
Among those questioned, the biggest concern remained the state of the country's economy, followed by law and order and the fight against corruption. Issues such as women's rights, terrorism and freedom of speech came way down the list of public concerns. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they were likely to support moderate economic and foreign policies, as well as moderate parties and candidates.
Of those polled, 82% wanted Cairo to continue to pursue economic liberalization and an opening to foreign trade, though there was also a desire for the state to play a more central job in preserving jobs.
Favors protecting jobs through stat control of economy: More likely (68%), less likely (11%)Opposes Iran and its nuclear weapons program: More likely (36%), less likely (22%)Favors keeping peace with Israel: More likely (62%), less likely (14%)
Migrant Surveys (generally from International Organization for Migration: http://www.egypt.iom.int/publications.htm)
1. Rapid Assessment of the Impact of the January 25 Events on Migrants in Cairo (February, 2011)
http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20Rapid%20assessment%20of%20the%20impact%20of%20the%20January%2025%20events%20on%20Migrants%20in%20Cairo.pdf
2. Egypt after January 25:Survey of Youth Migration Intentions (May, 2011) http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20(2011)%20Egypt%20after%20January%2025%20Survey%20of%20Youth%20Migration%20Intentions.pdf
3. Socio-economic profile of Egyptian migrantsreturning from Libya due to the crisis; sample analysis (august, 2011) http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/111006_Profiling_Egyptian_Migrants_FINAL.pdf
4. Migration Aspirations and Experiences of Egyptian Youth (February, 2011)http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20(2011)%20Migration%20Aspirations%20of%20Egyptian%20Youth.pdf
SCAF
وانخفضت نسبة التقيم لاداء المجلس الاعلي القوات المسلحة الي40.6% خلال اكتوبر مقارنة بــ44.6% خلال اغسطس وبلغت نسبة الثقة في قيام المجلس العسكري بمهام المرحلة الانتقالية بخصوص توفير الظروف المناسبة للانتقال الديمقراطي الي89.4% مقابل92.8% ونقل السلطة لحكومة مدنية الي88.3% مقابل99.2% واجراء انتخابات حرة91.7% في اكتوبر مقابل95.7% ومحاكمة رموز النظام السابق الي78.9% في اكتوبر مقابل86.1% في اغسطس.
"The approval rating of the SCAF was 40.6% in October vs. 44.6% in August, and the percent of Egyptians confident in the military council to provide the necessary conditions for the transition to democracy decreased to 89.4% from 92.8%. The percent confident in the SCAF to pass authority to a civilian government decreased to 88.3% from 99.2% and confidence in their ability to enact free elections declined from 95.7% to 91.7%. The percent confident in the SCAF’s ability to try members of the old regime in court declined from 86.1% in August to 78.9% in October."
Nature of State: (civil vs religious)
وعن الطبيعة المفضلة للدولة قال44.3% دولة ديمقراطية مدينة مقابل49.9% ودولة اسلامية6,45% مقابل42.9% ودولة قوية ولو كانت غير ديمقراطية10.1% مقابل7.2%
"As for the preferred nature of the state, 44.3% in October said they would prefer a civil state, down from 49.9% in August, while 45.6% said they would prefer an Islamic state (up from 42.9%), and the number of people who preferred a strong government (regardless of its democratic nature) increased to 10.1% from 7.2%."
Other Information
Parliamentary voting expectations are pretty far off with FJP in the lead but Wafd in second with 26% of the cote. HOWEVER, interestingly, when asked which party they thought did the most activity in their sorrounding areas the order was: FJP, Noor, Egyptian Bloc, Wafd then Wasat
59% of respondents said Egyptians are ready for democracy 37% think that within one year Egypt will be a democracy, 45% think it will be a partial democracy and 14% think it will resemble the old regime
42% think that Egypt will be more authoritarian in the future (not sure how that squares with results from line above)
52% of citizens feel "annoyance" due to the circumstances Egypt is currently going through with 17% hopeful of a solution to the problems and only 14% "confident"
Presidential poll: Amr Moussa (41%), Omar Suleiman (7%), Salim El Awa (6%), army candidate (15%)
28% of those surveyed thought that there should be more individual candidate seats in parliamentary elections
University of Maryland 2011 Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey (http://newsdesk.umd.edu/pdf/2011/telhamipoll2011.pdf)
"A plurality of Egyptians (43%) believe that the military rulers are working to slow or reverse the gains of the revolution, while only 21% believe that they are working to advance these gains, and 14% believe that the military authorities are indifferent."
2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt http://dedi.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/Voter-poll-survey.pdf
• What I cannot ever understand is how 10% of people would vote for OMAR SULEIMAN? izayyy yaani? I don't get it... Moreover, amazing how the former regimes campaign against Baradei had such a substantial impact (-58% favorability) whereas I bet had there been polls prior to his calls against the government of Mubarak his favorability would have been high (like Zeweill's)
• Stability/security is high on the voters’ agenda. In September 40% of Egyptians state that security/stability is the most important issue that the needs to addressed - an increase from 27% in August. The other two issues that are high on the agenda are ”reducing daily living expenses” (23%) and ”unemployment” (21%). However, it is important to note that the September interviews began only two days after the Israeli embassy incident – likely exacerbating those concerns amongst many.
• A clear majority of 65% wants martial law imposed to address problems in their neighborhood. Only 34% favors civil law.
Parliamentary Elections:
• In September, 73% of the population over the age of 18 intends to vote compared with 82% in August. Rreferendum in March (at the heat of the situation, relatively simple/straightforward choices) had 41% turnout – although 73% figure is not inconsistent with other countries figures for lower house elections
• 62% of the voters that intend to vote in elections have decided which party to vote for. In august there were 43% decided voters. (Large jump of 20% of the populace deciding on their candidates within a month – I do not think the parties had determined where they would be fielding candidates – district wise – at time of the poll so hard to say you are decided in that case, although the Freedom and Justice party I think had said they are going to nominate candidates for every district)
• The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) increases their popular support for upcoming parliamentary elections - enjoying support from 39% of the decided voters in September up from 31,5% in August.
• Al Wafd stands to gain 20% of the votes in September up from 14,8% in August.
• As the elections day is getting nearer and awareness about the political parties increases the population views the party more favorably. The FJP and the Al Wafd party also have the best favorablity.
• Only TWO parties are seen as favorable by the majority of Egyptians (statistically significantly at least) which are Wafd and FJP (ikhwan) - given what people believe is SCAFs ultimate desire, this will work out quite well for them (former NDP allegedly in Wafd and alliance with Islamists for FJP) they have done a decent job (although you can argue they had no hand in it) of discrediting liberal groups and all the other parties... Also, "Egypt National Party" (former NDP) so unfavorable.. but people were asked about the PARTY ITSELF, I don't think it reflects the voters identification with the individual people running in their constituency so while yes on the face of things people may say screw the NDP, when they are presented with an individual person who may have been former NDP but who they think did decently or gives them money or whatever they they will re-elect... (i guess I am confused - in the party based list, 75% of the seats, will voters know the name of their district candidates or is it a blind vote just based on the party? I think they identify the name which may help the NDP party if they have local strongmen)
Current Affairs:
• Egyptians view bullying, illegal drugs, robbery and illegal weapons as serious problems in their neighborhood. Around 40% of the Egyptian views these four issues as serious problems.
• 65% of the Egyptian either agrees or strongly agrees that protesters should be prevented from using the Tahrir Square.
• Egyptians favor a measured response to the crisis with Israel using diplomatic channels. The population wants to keep the peace treaty with Israel, but favor a renegotiation. Following the killing of Egyptian soldiers on the Israeli-Egyptian border, the stance is that the response should be an apology from Israel. The people morever want to put pressure on Israel in relation to the question of Palestine.
• Egyptians trust the judicial system to properly deal with the trail of former President Mubarak. A clear majority of 67% agree that the trail of Former President Mubarak should be completed no matter what and 78% are willing to accept whatever the outcome of the trail is.
Presidential Elections:
• There has been little development in the support for the presidential candidates and Amr Moussa still has a commanding lead in the presidential race with 45% of decided voters. Ahmed Shafiq is second with 13% of the decided voters.
Circa 2Q2011
International Republican Institute: Organization is US gov funded that does democracy promotion globally - mentioned in several articles and wikileaks as having provided financing for some of the protesters in the revolts (http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20Survey%20of%20Egyptian%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2014-27,%202011.pdf)
Most interesting findings was China preferred over US substantially, union leaders aren't too influential, expectations for economic are high - likely a potential problem area, apparently people don't care too much about political reform (although I truly think only way to improve economic situation is through accountability, which requires political reform),
1. Poll skews slightly older
2. Asked about leaders who exhibit influence
- Union leaders have far less sway than I thought
- Political leaders still have very little influence with populace
- Military leaders by far the most influence with religious leaders a distance second...
- Corroborated by the fact that not that many said situation has gotten worse over past year
5. As various metrics have shown, around 40% of Egyptians live underneath poverty (metrically defined as $2 a day, in this case defined as "I have trouble feeding myself and my family and buying even the most essential things for survival.)
6. 4 out of 5 top citations for "biggest problem facing Egypt" related to the economy (unemployment, corruption, wages/salaries, poverty)
7. Things improving over past year: corruption, political reform, independent media
8. Things getting worse over past year: education, independent civil society, living standards, health care, direct foreign investment, unemployment, security
9. Education and Healthcare are seen as the top two priorities (beating out democracy, infrastructure and business development)
10. Over 75% claim they are "very" or "somewhat confident" that the current gov. is able to address the main issues facing Egypt today
11. 51% believe parliamentary elections in september are occuring at the right time (with the remainder split between too soon and not soon enough)
12. 95% of people "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote
13. Fragmentation of parliamentary votes is pretty crazy! No party gets over 6% (and that is the "independent" and "wafd" parties)... Some interesting ones are: MB at 2% only!
14. When followup question about "how strongly you support party" 65% said "Don't know" with only 18% strongly supporting! Pretty open field...
15. The court system is the only instituation that has a positive approval rating (+12%) with political parties (-62%), government media (-47%) , indepdnent media (-20%), Business community (-48%)
16. People LOOKING for change... ~70% say they would be more likely to support a new party (only 14% said they would likely support an esablished/existing party)
17. Very impressive: Only ~22% would said they would NOT vote for a candidate under the age of 35 for parliament or municpial/governate councils (i.e. does not include president)
18. Only 6% of people would "not support" or "somewhat not support" the actions that caused Hosni's resignation (with 82% very supportive of the events)
19. 89% think that things in Egypt will get "much" or "somewhat" better... with only 5% saying it will get worse in any capacity
20. Pretty representative poll with 72% of respondents voted YES to referendum and 9% voting NO
21. Apparently, 30% of Egyptians participated in the protests in some way
With only 1% of people participating in "workers strikes" while 25% of people participated in street protests
22. Twitter matters NOTHING (literally rounds to 0%) to Egyptians! haha "twitter revolution"
23. Facebook affected about 10% substantially
- Youth were more likely to use Facebook; 11 percent of those under the age of 30 said they relied on the medium, versus three percent between the ages of 30-39, two percent of those in their 40’s, and three percent of those older than the age of 50
- Low Living Standard/Lack of Jobs" at 64%... Lack of Democracy/reform coming in at 19% with everything else pretty negligble (Khaled Said, Tunisia)
26. Al Masry Al Youm reaches is read by over 20% of population at least (17% read it as primary medium)
(Additional notes with some data not presented in report: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20IRI%20Egypt%20Index,%20April%2014-27,%202011.pdf)
Gallup Abu Dhabi: (http://www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/147902/BRIEF-BILINGUAL-Egypt-Tahrir-Transition.aspx) - Worth a read with good recommendations from a political perspective in the latter half of document (focus on "security" message, use TV to educate citizens, use the judiciary to keep things clean given their support, ensure that growth delivers to masses through facilitating entreupeneurship)
Egyptians are half as likely now (11%) as before the revolution (23%) to say they would move permanently to another country if given the opportunity [The change from fall 2010 to spring 2011 in desire to stay in Egypt reveals a level of commitment to the country that hasn’t been evident in the recent past.]
69% of Egyptians now say they have confidence in the country’s financial institutions, compared with 43% before the revolution
Egyptians are also more likely now than in late 2010 to say they think they can get ahead by working hard (93% versus 81%
Egyptians are three times as likely a month and a half after Mubarak’s resignation to say they believe the country’s economy is getting better (46%) than they were in the fall of 2010 (15%),
1. people are more optimistic (previously we were getting more pessimistic every quarter, now a huge boost in optimism) and more people want to stay in the country
2. People still want religion to play a role... While they are wary of having it control the state, they are less likely to want it completely removed - rather, an advisory role is preferred, however, far easier said than done!
3. Peoples belief that peaceful means can bring about positive change has increased SUBSTANTIALLY (goes well to put the phenomenon of fundamentalism/extremism as the product of our political situations, not something culturally innate or religiously expounded)
4. We open to other religions - second most arab country after Lebanon and substantially ahead of most Others (+17% over Syria, +48% over Saudi)
5. "Americans’ overall favorable opinion of Egypt bounced back, with 60% of the U.S. public saying it had a favorable opinion of Egypt, and 70% saying the same about the country’s people. This is comparable to the percentage of Americans who said they had a favorable opinion of Israel (69%), and much higher than those who said the same about Syria (32%)."
6. Conflicting results on media usage (this poll reports State TV was most watched whereas other poll said AlJazeera was)
7. Only 17% of protestors had internet access at home (I think this aligns with national averages, so the protestors apparently were average Egyptians for everyone who says not)
8. Completely conflicting information on political parties vs above poll (MB @ 15%, NDP @ 10% and Wafd @ 9%)
9. People think economy getting worse, less satisfied with healthcare and housing (vs last year)
10. So apparently, ACTUAL CRIME has gone down (people reporting money stolen or assaulted in past year) HOWEVER, percent who don't "feel safe walking alone" shot up 2X (17% to 39%)...
11. VAST VAST majority do not want US sending aid to political groups (even those who see US as a model for Egypt, 85% do not want US funding political parties)
12. 90% of Egyptians expect next polls to be fair and free
13. 94% of Egyptians have confidence in the military
14. Despite solid high level growth rates prior to revolution, only 20% thought economic conditions were improving
Pew Poll: http://pewglobal.org/files/2011/04/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Egypt-Report-FINAL-April-25-2011.pdf
(Pew has weird polls from the Middle East - I remember a poll from years ago, often uniquely cited by people with a specific point to prove, that something like 80% of Egyptians supported stoning for adultery and cutting hands for stealing which doesn't jive with anything I know or any of the other polls I've ever seen)
75% of Egyptians have a "very" or "somewhat" favorable view of MB. this poll says only 77% thought Mubarak leaving was good thing, that more people say democracy is more important than economics, 23% getting info from social networks, 35% of high income Egyptians agree with fundamentalists - vs. only 20% of the low income Egyptians)Lots more data in the last poll but covers much of same ground as above polls...
Gallup Abu Dhabi Poll with an empirical analysis of social and economic conditions in the months before the uprising on Jan. 25, 2011 http://www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/146888/brief-egypt-arithmetic-revolution.aspx
International Peace Institute: http://www.ipinst.org/images/pdfs/egypt-poll-results-april2011.pdf
Based on their stats of people questioned the sample had 11% illiterate which isn't exactly representative, but then again it was self-identified illiteracy... (Additionally was a phone interview so likely some bias with regards to that: "The poll, conducted for the New York International Peace Institute (IPI) by Charney Research, was based on 615 telephone interviews among a random sample of adults across Egypt between 9 and 20 March 2011" Also, looking at parties favorobility results were somewhat off (Wafd:46%; Muslim Brotherhood:38% favorable, but almost as many unfavorable; Tagammu, Ghad, and nationalist Nasserist parties 30s; NDP 26% favourable, though it was also the only party whose unfavorable opinions were also high at 48 per cent)... To be fair though, the Wafd vote likely swung towards the Kotla (but still doesn't necessarily explain where the Noor vote came from, but many suggest that the poor are the ones that voted for them and they may have been excluded from phone interviews - also, given the potential communist appeal to the lower classes maybe Noor took those votes??? Far fetched but can't see where else they would come from.. NDP??)
At a time when signs of friction have emerged between the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) and groups of protesters in Tahrir Square, the poll also showed that the Egyptian army remains very popular, with 77 per cent of those polled saying they held a favourable view of it.
82% said they felt that Egypt was going in the right direction, compared to only 10 per cent who said it was going in the wrong direction. Seventy-nine per cent said they were satisfied with the interim government's performance.
Among those questioned, the biggest concern remained the state of the country's economy, followed by law and order and the fight against corruption. Issues such as women's rights, terrorism and freedom of speech came way down the list of public concerns. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they were likely to support moderate economic and foreign policies, as well as moderate parties and candidates.
Of those polled, 82% wanted Cairo to continue to pursue economic liberalization and an opening to foreign trade, though there was also a desire for the state to play a more central job in preserving jobs.
Favors protecting jobs through stat control of economy: More likely (68%), less likely (11%)Opposes Iran and its nuclear weapons program: More likely (36%), less likely (22%)Favors keeping peace with Israel: More likely (62%), less likely (14%)
Migrant Surveys (generally from International Organization for Migration: http://www.egypt.iom.int/publications.htm)
1. Rapid Assessment of the Impact of the January 25 Events on Migrants in Cairo (February, 2011)
http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20Rapid%20assessment%20of%20the%20impact%20of%20the%20January%2025%20events%20on%20Migrants%20in%20Cairo.pdf
2. Egypt after January 25:Survey of Youth Migration Intentions (May, 2011) http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20(2011)%20Egypt%20after%20January%2025%20Survey%20of%20Youth%20Migration%20Intentions.pdf
3. Socio-economic profile of Egyptian migrantsreturning from Libya due to the crisis; sample analysis (august, 2011) http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/111006_Profiling_Egyptian_Migrants_FINAL.pdf
4. Migration Aspirations and Experiences of Egyptian Youth (February, 2011)http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20(2011)%20Migration%20Aspirations%20of%20Egyptian%20Youth.pdf