Pretty sad - the chart/numbers speak for themselves... Now just to compare global regions - we can see that the Arab countries fare quite poorly (and Egypt sits at the bottom of those unfortunately)... Also, interestingly, the Nordic countries are far ahead of the rest of the world in female representation, almost providing them equal opportunity (assuming a 50/50 population split)... For a full list of percent female representation by country please see here... A more detailed analysis (i.e. breakdown by upper and lower houses for a select subset of countries can be found here) Just to compare to US congress see below, since US just tends to have very easily accessbile data (as illustrated by this report)
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Egyptian Protesters: A one shot deal? A historical analysis of expectations & disillusionment4/13/2012
Meirowitz (Prof. of Politics, Princeton) & Tucker (Assoc. Prof. of Politics, NYU) look at the role of the individual & past experiences in determining whether citizens will decide to participate in protests. (i.e. why are citizens willing to bear the cost of protesting once to remove a go, only to shrug their collective shoulders at that same scenario coming to place later?) - http://ow.ly/agziQ "However, a third conclusion from the model is a bit less obvious. Namely, we find that the one-shot deal scenario may be more likely when citizens have less certainty about the nature of the universe of potential governments. To put this more intuitively, in an established democracy, we might expect that citizens generally believe the quality of the government will be “good.” (By “good” we don’t necessarily mean that the government is above average for the governments in that country, but only that it meets some basic threshold such as competently executing government policy, not being corrupt, not stealing from the population, etc. Governments that fail to meet this threshold could be considered “bad.”) Thus in an established democracy, when by misfortune citizens happen to get the odd “bad” government, it is worth a potentially costly effort (i.e., an extended protest) to replace that government, because you are confident your replacement will probably be good. In a new regime, however, citizens may have much less confidence about the universe of potential governments, i.e., whether in general most governments are good or most governments are bad. Consider the case of Ukraine in 2005 following the Orange Revolution. Citizens have observed a number of bad governments. This may be because (a) non-democratic governments are bad or (b) most Ukrainian politicians are corrupt. At the time of the Orange Revolution, Ukrainians may have been motivated to protest because they believed (a) to be the case, and thus switching to a more democratic system would usher in a period where governments would be generally good. However, if 2005-2010 reveals nothing more than a series of bad, democratically elected, governments in Ukraine, then Ukrainian citizens may come to believe that they are simply living in a world where all Ukrainian governments are bad. And if that’s the case, why bother protesting again? Which brings us back to Egypt. If political developments proceed as expected, then at some point in the near future Egypt will have democratic elections. My post today should be taken as a warning that to expect the events of early 2011 to serve as a guarantee of good governance in the post-Mubarak era might be naïve. Indeed, to the extent that any post-Mubarak government fails to live up the expectations of the Egyptian citizenry, it might counter-intuitively make those citizens less likely to protest in the future. Thus the stakes for Egypt’s initial post-Mubarak governments may be even higher than we already expect." I think this can also be expanded to describe our failure at enacting a variety of changes, not just changes in government... Unless one fundamentally believes that people in this region (or the developing world as a whole) are inherently inferior to those in the currently democratic, developed nations then the full UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL GOVERNMENTS"/SOLUTIONS EXISTS exists for us as well– and there is no fundamental reason we should not have access to that whole universe! I'm sick of hearing people’s ideas put down because “the West doesn’t even have that”… I don’t recall the men of the renaissance only aspiring to achieving parity with the Ottomans or Chinese, or the US founding fathers limiting themselves to what the UK had… Fundamentally, it also comes down to stop giving ourselves excuses… when we are abroad and the streets are clean, people stand in lines, etc we think “Tab why can’t we do this?” and a myriad of problems arise: lack of education, people are lazy, etc. etc… The answer needs to be “WE CAN DO THIS” and the thinking should be on how to enact that, instead of wasting mental energy as to why it CANT be done… Yeah, it won’t happen overnight but having the belief that we actually can reach there is the first step… It sounds cheesy but I do believe we live with this strange complex about our ability vis-à-vis that of Western nations/people.. Much of the summary provided by this excellent piece on the Wall Street Journal by one of the authors http://ow.ly/agzsf
Came across this website earlier which had a pretty unique story about Omar Suleiman from a torture victim of his... Of course, no way to verify the validity of the statements but the Australian courts finally acknowledged that the victim had been taken to Egypt for rendition... Australian citizen Mamdouh Habib was captured and tortured in the years after September 11 in both Egypt and Guantanamo Bay. Excerpts from Mamdouh Habib's book that reference Suleiman are extracted below: pp.112-115 The guard quickly told me that the very big boss was coming to talk to me, and that I must be well behaved and co-operate. Everyone was nervous. I have since found out that the boss was Omar Suleiman, head of all Egyptian security. He was known for personally supervising the interrogation of al-Qaeda suspects and sending reports to the CIA. In the beginning, he was often present during my interrogations. He must have thought that he had a big fish when I was sent to him by the Americans and Australians. I was sitting in a chair, hooded, with my hands handcuffed behind my back. He came up to me. His voice was deep and rough. He spoke to me in Egyptian and English. He said, “Listen, you don’t know who I am, but I am the one who has your life in his hands. Every single person in this building has his life in my hands. I just make the decision.” I said, “I hope your decision is that you make me die straight away.” “No, I don’t want you to die now. I want you to die slowly.” He went on, “I can’t stay with you; my time is too valuable to stay here. You only have me to save you. I’m your saviour. You have to tell me everything, if you want to be saved. What do you say?” “I have nothing to tell you.” “You think I can’t destroy you just like that?” He clapped his hands together. “I don’t know”. I was feeling confused. Everything was unreal. “If God came down and tried to take you by the hand, I would not let him. You are under my control. Let me show you something that will convince you.” The guard then guided me out of the room and through an area where I could see, from below the blindfold, the trunks of palm trees. We then went through another door back inside, and descended some steps. We entered a room. They sat me down. “Now you are going to tell me that you planned a terrorist attack”, Suleiman persisted. “I haven’t planned any attacks.” “I give you my word that you will be a rich man if you tell me you have been planning attacks. Don’t you trust me?” he asked. “I don’t trust anyone”, I replied. Immediately he slapped me hard across the face and knocked off the blindfold; I clearly saw his face. “That’s it. That’s it. I don’t want to see this man again until he co-operates and tells me he’s been planning a terrorist attack! he yelled at the others in the room, then stormed out. The guard came up to me, upset that I hadn’t co-operated. I said to him, “You have to let me go soon; it’s nearly 48 hours.” He looked at me, surprised, and asked, “How long do you think you’ve been here?” “A day”, I replied. “Man, you’ve been here for more than a week.” They then took me to another room, where they tortured me relentlessly, stripping me naked and applying electric shocks everywhere on my body. The next thing I remember was seeing the general again. He came into the room with a man from Turkistan; he was a big man but was stooped over, because his hands were chained to the shackles of his feet, preventing him from standing upright. “This guy is no use to us anymore. This is what is going to happen to you. We’ve had him for one hour, and this is what happens.” Suddenly, a guy they called Hamish, which means snake, came at the poor man from behind and gave him a terrible karate kick that sent him crashing across the room. A guard went over to shake him, but he didn’t respond. Turning to the general, the guard said, “Basha, I think he’s dead.” “Throw him away then. Let the dogs have him.” They dragged the dead man out. “What do you think of that?” asked the general, staring into my face. “At least he can rest now”, I replied. Then they brought another man in. This man, I think, was from Europe – his exclamations of pain didn’t sound like those of someone from the Middle East. He was in a terrible state. The guard came in with a machine and started to wire up the guy to it. They told the poor man that they were going to give him a full electric shock, measuring ten on the scale. Before they even turned the machine on, the man started to gasp and then slumped in the chair. I think he died of a heart attack. The general said that there was one more person I had to see. “This person will make you see that we can keep you here for as long as we want, all of your life, if we choose.” There was a window in the room, covered by a curtain. The general drew back a curtain, and I saw the top half of a very sick, thin man. He was sitting on a chair on the other side of the glass, facing me. “You know this guy?” the general asked. “No”, I replied. “That’s strange – he’s your friend from Australia.” I looked again, and was horrified to see that it was Mohammed Abbas, a man I had known in Australia who had worked for Telstra [Australian telecommunications company]. He had travelled to Egypt in 1999, and had never been seen again. “He is going to be your neighbour for the rest of your life.” It was then that I knew I was in Egypt, without a doubt. They then took Abbas away and closed the curtain. p.118 After the first interrogation with Suleiman, I believed the Egyptians weren’t interested in where I had been; they only wanted me to confess to being a terrorist and having plotted terrorist attacks so they could sell the information to the United States and Australia. I decided then that I wouldn’t answer questions or explain anything; but, as a consequence, I was badly tortured in Egypt. p.133 The Egyptians didn’t like Maha [Habib’s wife] at all. One day, I overheard Omar Suleiman saying to someone, “I would love to bring Maha here.” I have no idea when this was but the memory of these few words is very vivid in my mind. Fortunately, though, Suleiman could never have gotten hold of Maha, because she is Lebanese born and an Australian citizen. Suleiman, before my release from Egypt, often threatened that he would get me back if I ever said anything bad about Egypt. PLEASE SEE HERE FOR LATEST VERSION - THIS IS OUTDATED! (http://www.ducoht.org/1/post/2012/04/scafs-musical-chairs-the-current-22-plus-2-former-members.html) This is in reverse chronological order (latest addition at top) with the first, original 14-body group identification from the government at bottom of post… SCAF profiles I am trying to build - still in progress though - can be found here (http://ow.ly/9WNhP)... Current Count: 23 (assuming Etman still a member) Multiple News Reports Meet General Mahmoud Nasr - assistant defense minister for finance and also a SCAF member. The man emerged in December (but I didn't notice until he came up again recently with some statements regarding the military budget, state expenses, etc. (which will be disputed in a blog post soon)...This brings me to a total of 23! (getting closer to that Economist cited number of 24 - although they gave no details as to names so unsure if we are counting the same people). I plan on trying to assess and shed light on some of his comments in the near future given the mysterious nature of military finances. December link (http://ow.ly/a0YRs) recent comments (http://ow.ly/a0YQE) Department of Defense and Daily News Egypt Must have missed this SCAF member - Staff Major General Ibrahim Al-Noshy! haven't seen his name elsewhere but while reading a department of defense communique highlighting US-Egyptian military meetings over recent days they were listing people that US personnel met with and there was a name I hadn't seen before – commenting that he was “chief of the Egyptian Army’s training authority”. After a bit of searching, found this article http://ow.ly/91dbP that lists him as a SCAF member and in charge of Sinai affairs. This brings me to a total of 22! (Although, as a reader pointed out a few weeks back THIS (http://ow.ly/91diF) Economist article had the number at 24 but listed no names so unclear who.) From Carnegie Endowment (Jan 5th, 2012): http://ow.ly/8vqJm "A list of the nineteen members of the SCAF is provided below, with the first eight being the most outspoken:" Adds: Major General Mukhtar al-Mulla: Assistant defense minister Major General Adel Amara: Assistant defense minister (he was only highlighted as an advisor before but Carnegie puts him as a proper member) Also had different names for the commanders of regional armies (Western, Northern and Eastern) For a total of 21! From 12/19 Press Conference about Parliament Building "But only advisors apparently" "Adel Emara" "Kato" (hitler oven dude - old video of him: http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/332949) Wikipedia (says they are 18) A total of 18 members including Six other military commanders (possibly including the four chiefs of staff of the four branches of the Egyptian Armed Forces). Adds: Major General Mohamed Saber Attia - Chief of Operations for the Armed Forces For a total of 19.! Has names for the regional military zone commanders: Major General Hassan Mohammed Ahmed - Commander of the Northern Military Zone Major General Mohsen El-Shazly - Commander of the Southern Military Zone Major General Mahmoud Ibrahim Hegazy - Commander of the Western Military Zone Foreign Affairs magazine, September/October 2011, "Commanding Democracy in Egypt" In May, General Mamdouh Shahin, a member of the SCAF (legal affairs) For a total of 18! Youm7 (http://allafrica.com/stories/201112050301.html) Adds Maj. Gen. Mamdouh Abdul Haq, a member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) said in a meeting at "90 minutes TV program" on 3/12/2011 For a total of 17! Amnesty International Report (http://goo.gl/e1qvO) Adds: Major-General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Head of Military Intelligence Mohammed Said al-Assar, Assistant Defence Minster For a total of 16! Egyptian State Information Services Website from 2/18/2011: (total of 14) Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, former Minister of Defence and Military Production Lt. General Sami Annan, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Admiral Mohab Memish, the Commander of the Maritime Force Air Marshal Reda Hafez, the Commander of the Air Force Lt. General Abdel Aziz Seif, the Commander of the Air Defense Forces General Hassan al-Rwini, the Commander of the Military Central Zone Staff General Ismail Othman, the Director of the Morale Affairs Department General Mohsen al-Fanagry, the Assistant Defense Minister Staff General Mohammed Abdel Nabi, the Commander of the Border Guard Staff General Mohammed Hegazy, the Commander of the Third Field Army Staff General Sobhy Sedky, the Commander of the Second Field Army The commanders of the northern, southern and western zones (3 additional) [Birth Years: Tantawi (1935), Annan (1948), Hafez (1952), Seifeddin (1949)] Went through those leaked STRATFOR email a few weeks back and had taken these notes so figured I would post them up here for anybody who is interested... This is not comprehensive but rather just some of the more interesting details that emerged (mainly focused around Middle East, but some random outlandish stories included as well). For disclosures sake (not that it matters) I did subsribe to STRATFOR for one year following the Jan25 uprising in Egypt as they provided good daily news bulletins and frequent updates/reports - although the Egypt focused content decreased substantially following the parliamentary elections... Without further ado:
$125B of Mexican drug money each year between 2004-2007 b. Interesting correspondence around Flotilla sabatoge… Nothing groundbreaking but just clearly they are supportive of Israel’s position (i.e. writing “Nice move” when the sabotage was successful c. Apparently, Democrats were ballot stuffing in US elections but McCain decided to be the bigger man 1. Russia-Israel-Georgia-Mexico-Iran weapons trading/espionage ring (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/64027_insight-russia-israel-georgia-mexico-defense-deals-and-swaps.html) – this adds some additional credence to the whole Iran taking over a US unmanned drone and landing it safely per the code swaps and drone hacks
4. Egypt – Post Mubarak (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/309308_re-for-comment-conclusion-to-egypt-monograph-contemporary.html) – nothing groundbreaking but a nice summary of STRATFOR’s views that it was a palace coup and not a true revolution of the people (i.e. without army desiring removal of Mubarak nothing would have happened)
5. On Hamas’ role/view on Egyptian revolution (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/309308_re-for-comment-conclusion-to-egypt-monograph-contemporary.html)
6. Libyan Contact – correspondences between an employee of http://www.scginternational.com/ (see website here – covers operations, logistics, intelligence, Iraq/Afghanistan, etc.) who was on the ground around September 2011… Fred Burton: Interesting. You guys lending the opposition a hand? I would hope so. James Smith: Certainly are. They need it. At the request of a usg committee and the rebs. Been there since no-fly. Fred Burton: Tactical and intel support too? James Smith: No, mainly tac ground training and psd for key figures. Fred Burton then shares some article about potential assassintation of rebel leaders and asks if the threat is real/credible James Smith: Completely. Last week of August I was at a house here (32DEG 52.552'N / 13DEG 8.512'E) owned by a man last name Hakin (like the MOD Hakin but not the same man). After midnight we recv'd ph call from anonymous caller telling him to get ready for a vehicle to come by to pick him up and take him to a pos so he could pickup some money. We then called a contact at MOD and ran it by them, they knew of the ruse somehow and said it was a trap aimed at the real Hakin (MOD head) and that we should vacate asap. We grabbed weapons, go-bag and moved out of the house on foot down the streets (can't drive this area due to roadblocks at every corner) to a safe(r) house. I happened to be solo that night. I moved him to the top of the house (3rd deck), barricaded the door on ground and the access to the roof, then put him down and maintained overwatch of the street below from the roof til dawn. This happens frequently here. Definite threat to NTC and lower level brigade leadership as well. MAP of location mentioned: http://ow.ly/9WIMt 7. Hugo Chavez health issues and Venezuela transition plus some tidbits around Iran and George Friedman’s advice on how to secure a source - also, examples of how militaries all over the world enjoy their luxuries (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/202526_re-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html)
8. Feeling that global elite are lost. http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116544_re-insight-for-internal-use-only-on-pain-of-agony-.html These emails are from 2010 and also have much discussion about Kissinger believing Iran is about to go to war which obviously turned out to be false…
9. Halliburton alleged dirty games (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417564_sam-kent-and-halliburton-.html)
Date 2011-12-13 16:02:19 From [email protected] To [email protected] Others MessageId: <[email protected]> InReplyTo: [email protected] Text Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian regime and the lack of options for Iran? I do believe the part about Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up an opposition via FSA. SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo SOURCE HANDLER: Reva Marhaba Reva, I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token, regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise. The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against Sunni protesters. Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a vain fight against the burgeoning uprising. The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model. There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political one. One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role in the affairs of Damascus. The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the regime change remains nebulous. 12. Other:
For aggregation of previous polls please see: www.ducoht.org/polls.html Executive Summary of Arabic Opinion Index poll with more results to be released (although there is apparently a 90-page document sent out to researchers).... The survey in question was conducted during 2011 in 12 Arab countries: Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine (the West Bank and Gaza), Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen. It was carried out via multi-staged cluster samples representative of the societies included, with a margin of error not exceeding 3.5 percent. Overall, some 16,173 respondents were interviewed, with the assistance of several Arab research centers. Support for Arab Revolutions Most Arab citizens support the Arab revolutions:
The survey’s results show democracy to be well-rooted in Arab public opinion. Most respondents (81 percent) were able to detail a meaningful, substantive type of democratic system which they would accept as fitting their needs. Arab citizens focus on political aspects when defining democracy: the respondents emphasized the following as important to the functioning of a democracy:
Corruption and fairness
Over the past several years Turkey has emerged as the darling of the Arab world with its direct confrontation of Israel killing its civilians and it’s tough stance on Syria. The government of Turkey attempted to broker an agreement between IAEA and Tehran regarding its nuclear program and stood up for Palestinian rights with Erdogan confronting Peres about the Gaza massacre during the World Economic Forum. Most importantly, unlike false bravado we have seen in the rest of the Arab region, this is reinforced by strong economic growth (not just at macro level GDP figures but with wealth increasing across most levels of society), domestic stability and increased political openness. I believe this is the result of increasing civilian control of government and, through understanding how Turkey got to this point, we can learn from their experience and avoid their mistakes. Kamel Ataturk formed the modern Turkish republic following the fall of the Ottoman Empire and, although he was a military officer himself, he actively endeavored to limit the military’s role in politics – most explicitly by a decree in 1930 that prohibited active officers from holding political positions. After the coups d'état in 1960, the National Unity Committee established the Inner Service Act of the Turkish Armed Forces in 1961 to legitimize military interventions in politics – thus placing it in a similar position to what Egypt was in post-1952. However, the countries have diverged over the past decade. Much like Mubarak’s Egypt, Turkey tended to blindly support Western programs and concede to Western requests and while Egypt was under the tutelage of the US, Turkey’s drive was a mad desire – particularly on the part of the military – to join the EU. While I will not go into why this shift occurred per se, two key factors are the hurt dignity of the Turkish people being repeatedly rebuffed by the EU and the relatively weak economic growth both resulting from lack of accountability at top levels. In 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) under the leadership of Erdogan took nearly 2/3rds of parliament seats and over the past decade has cemented its control on government and wrestled power away from the generals. A few telling harbingers are that the new defense minister and deputy defense minister are former AKP party members, Turkish withdrawal of its ambassador from and severing of military ties with Israel and, most spectacularly, the arrest of over 40 generals who were allegedly plotting a coup to remove Erdogan from power. Moreover, the AKP’s rise has been accomplished not through force, backroom deals, cronyism but rather through full transparency and enabling the populace to trust, and have faith in, their government. The beneficial results of ceding power from the military are numerous. Most importantly, the people in control are now fully accountable to their populace – previously the military (through constitutional dictate that they imposed after some of the four coups in the past 30 years) was allowed to intervene in Turkish politics to preserve the secular nature of government – specifically stating that "the Turkish Armed Forces maintain their sound determination to carry out their duties stemming from laws to protect the unchangeable characteristics of the Republic of Turkey”. In reality what this meant was the military was able to consistently secure its own privileges – threatening any civilian government who attempted to advance the country in face of military interests with immediate removal manifested most recently in 1997 with the removal of elected prime minister Necmettin Erbakan (they executed Turkey’s first democratically elected prime minister, Adnan Menderes, in 1960). While the reasons why this is not a sustainable system are numerous, I believe the key point is the lack of accountability. Accountability is defined as having to face consequences as a result of your actions – without this it is hard to correct the path one is on and ensure consistent re-guidance. Rather, the absence of accountability (i.e. no elections) enables one to perpetuate incorrect action – moreover, when this lack of accountability is extended to criticism too (i.e. media restrictions) then not only are leaders not self correcting but they tend to be unaware of their failures. Unfortunately, politics globally has taught us that political parties tend to desire perpetuation of their control/rule and – barring some reworking of human nature – we cannot change that. However, what we can change is the incentive structure. The merits of democracies are that, in order to perpetuate power, a party has to deliver results to its citizens or else next election cycle the opponents will capitalize on that failure and potentially win office. In the systems setup in Egypt, there was little correlation between delivering results to citizens and staying in power. The NDP just had to ensure that its party members would remain loyal and that they did not step on the toes of the military; as long as they kept both those groups happy there was little fear of them being shaken. In fact some political observers argue that, in reality, it was Gamal Mubarak’s encroachment on the military's economic benefits that was the crucial factor in the Mubarak’s and NDP’s downfall. One may argue that the Turkish model served the country well for many decades and set the stage for the current transition they are undergoing today – however, there are three key differences in Egypt’s case. First of all, practically speaking, the Egyptian military has many differences with the Turkish that would make the lead-up to transition much rougher. From the onset, the Turkish military showed a progressive outlook for the underlying vision of their nation. The Egyptian military, while not evil, lacks that driving force and - as a result - is more so driven by selfish motivations to maintain their hold on power/finances. In essence, the army is willing to give power to civilians only as long as the army is assured its economic interests; as such, the initial discord with the NDP arose - not due to underlying allegiance to citizen/nation - but rather because of Gamal's aggressive economic agenda (e.g. privatization of banks) that wrested some of the military's economic control. In reality, the officers seem only interested in stability, maintaining their economic interests, and preserving the legitimacy of the armed forces despite having been the backbone of a thoroughly discredited regime for 60 years. As a result, the SCAF seems to be willing to hand over power to anyone who can guarantee those three interests. Second, philosophically speaking, there is no reason to believe that Turkey could not have achieved this same result several decades ago had the people stood up to the military and on the side of civilian government – despite potential disagreements with some details of various political groups, the people (Egyptian or Turkish) need to support the independence of a civilian government. Moreover, given SCAF’s conditions for civilian control, allowing them to perpetuate control and limit civilian government to their liking would be disastrous and lead us to a Mubarak 2.0 (not forgetting that they supported v1.0 for decades). Finally, most commentators believe it is EU demands on Turkey that led to the gradual transition to civilian power – a constraint that the Egyptian military does not face. Turkey’s democratic changes, which remain far from complete, happened despite the military, not because of it. This is most evident in the effect EU demands have had on the MGK (Milli Güvenlik Kurulu, considered the institutionalization of the Turkish military’s influence over politics) a body that can be considered very similar to today’s SCAF. Based on the Copenhagen criteria – requirements for Turkey to enter EU negotiations – the Turkish parliament passed a number of reforms, most recently in 2003 with the “seventh reform package” which most importantly made it possible to appoint a civilian head to the MKG, limited their control of media (radio and TV) and disbanded its Public Relations Command which covertly influenced public opinion by issuing public statements on political developments and government actions. Let us realize the benefits Turkey is enjoying and, through understanding the reasons why, be more driven to demanding accountability of our government. In most democratic nations military budgets are in the public domain, national security issues are subject to parliamentary oversight, and, they key difference: the military executes, rather than makes, national security policy – therefore, having foreign policy under the purview of the public. After 8 Turks were killed by Israeli Defense Forces during the Gaza flotilla incident, the embassy in Ankara was not stormed. While there were "dozens" of stone throwing individuals - there was not wholesale craze as we witnessed on 9/9/2011 because the Turkish people knew their government would stand up for their citizens blood - in Egypt citizens felt they needed to make sure Israel heard Egyptian complaints since they had no faith that the SCAF would do so.
When governments in the Middle East (and around the world) say that protesters are operating under foreign agendas and protesting for money, etc - it always strikes me as odd the transparency that these regimes offer vs what is offered by those that they throw allegations at. Anyway - regarding the baseless allegations.. Compare the two clips above and the questions/quotes that arise: Iranian Propaganda Video (youtube link) Two questions that arise for me are:
At the end of the day, the Egyptian government during Jan25 protests was trying to peddle the message that the people in Tahrir squared are betraying their country for a KFC meal... The real question arises though: If one is willing to betray their country for some fried chicken, then what society do we really have?? Gene Sharp Interview (full video link here) While you should watch the whole interview in the link above (it is around 1 hr 20min, but if you have a video program put it at 1.2 speed, it's still comprehensible and saves some time). Anyway, the above clip I selected simply in response to the above allegations by the Iranian regime (and various other governments when they speak out against protesters). Gene Sharp clearly advocates "RELY ON YOURSELVES ALONE - DON'T DEPEND ON SOMEONE ELSE COMING TO SAVE YOU, THEY MAY NEVER GET THERE AND THEY MAY COME WITH SHACKLES AS WELL" Moreover, he speaks out against the CIA, foreign government's interests, etc. While one can claim this is all talk, he has also written books to that regard (i.e. the Anti-Coup which can be applied to the CIA-puppet governments in the 1960s-1990s in Latin America). Finally, to top it all off, he even has writing on civilian based defense and how to prevent war, etc. (i.e. he is agianst the military-industrial complex which I believe is what all of the corpiracy thoritests understand is driving the NWO, Masonic Groups, FreeMasons, etc.) Maybe it is all a facade and his life work was all a cover up and his real motives are in support of the CIA and that military-industrial complex. Maybe. First of all, it strikes me as funny how the people they accuse (e.g. Gene Sharp and George Soros) are frequently on TV and in conferences discussing their works, messages, etc. (just saw George Soros interviewed on Fareed Zakaria a few weeks back see HERE). Some quotes/ideas I liked from the discussion with Mr. Sharp:
Just as an unnecessary addition relating to the first video, I thoroughly dislike MEMRI and hate using their clip here given their appalling ability to nitpick on the smallest detail of negative Arab media yet I do not think (and pls correct me if I am wrong) I have ever seen anything shown of negative Israeli propoganda - whose effects can be seen HERE. In theory a good start but, of course, little/no details provided by government it seems... Any more info on the below? Given even very recent abuse (see here) and the potential of our police to be used as a tool of the regime in power, this is a key priority... (Some brief notes and links on the Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim can be found here) From State Information Service: (official government) http://ow.ly/9apvb Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim asserted on Saturday 18/2/2012 that the ministry has taken the initiative to restructure its departments in a way that fits the nature of the current conditions in Egypt after the revolution. The Police have their honorable patriotic history in Egypt and used to upright conduct and punctuality in both behavior and appearance, the Minister affirmed, adding that the police have the objective standards that are able to correct any mistake and abolish any negative aspect in the post-revolution phase and bring any individual involved in any act of negligence. The Police have changed their security philosophy, slogan and work approach and are maintaining the stability and security of Egypt. From Masry al Youm: http://ow.ly/9apsT Freedom and Justice, the mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party, leads with the headline, “Interior Ministry purged.” Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim has declared that various committees are being formed to restructure the ministry, adding that officers and soldiers have donated one day’s salary as a contribution to Egypt’s economy and a symbol of their love to their country. The article does not specify where these donations will go. MP Farid Ismail, head of Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee and a Freedom and Justice Party member, agreed to the restructuring decision, according to the party paper. Ismail recently declared that a committee had been formed to question 805 Interior Ministry staff members who are allegedly implicated in crimes. In the paper, Ismail also denied a “rumor” published by Al-Masry Al-Youm that FJP asked for an entire class of police graduates to be selected from the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood, saying Al-Masry Al-Youm’s article was a continuation of the newspaper’s policy of tarnishing the Brotherhood’s reputation. Came across this article a few days ago. It is an account of musician Mohammed Jamal's (Salalem band) unjustified arrest and (by definition) unjustified abuse at the hands of state security. Some tidbits are extracted below but the full article is available here. I hope that he continues to pursue the officers who are to blame because, until they feel they are held accountable for their actions, they will continue with these disgusting practices and continue to serve the next person in power with little regards to the people they should actually be serving - the people who pay their salaries - the citizens.
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