Egypt Data Blog
  • Home
  • Blog/Politics
  • Voting
    • Votes vs. Demographics
    • Egypt Presidential Results and Analysis
    • Parliament Elections >
      • District Information
      • Seat Distributions
      • By District Votes/Seats
      • Analysis
      • Political Party Orientation
      • Shura Council
    • Referendum
  • Polls
  • Sinai/Bedouins
  • SCAF
    • Tantawi - SCAF Member Background
    • Tarek ElMahdi - SCAF Member Background
    • Sami Annan - SCAF Member Background
    • Mohamed El-Assar - SCAF Member Background
    • Reda Hafez - SCAF Member Background
    • Ismail Othman - SCAF Member Background
  • Economy

Egyptian Protesters: A one shot deal? A historical analysis of expectations & disillusionment

4/13/2012

24 Comments

 
"...to expect the events of early 2011 to serve as a guarantee of good governance in the post-Mubarak era might be naïve. Indeed, to the extent that any post-Mubarak government fails to live up the expectations of the Egyptian citizenry, it might counter-intuitively make those citizens less likely to protest in the future."
Picture
Meirowitz (Prof. of Politics, Princeton) & Tucker (Assoc. Prof. of Politics, NYU) look at the role of the individual & past experiences in determining whether citizens will decide to participate in protests. (i.e. why are citizens willing to bear the cost of protesting once to remove a go, only to shrug their collective shoulders at that same scenario coming to place later?) - http://ow.ly/agziQ

"However, a third conclusion from the model is a bit less obvious. Namely, we find that the one-shot deal scenario may be more likely when citizens have less certainty about the nature of the universe of potential governments. To put this more intuitively, in an established democracy, we might expect that citizens generally believe the quality of the government will be “good.” (By “good” we don’t necessarily mean that the government is above average for the governments in that country, but only that it meets some basic threshold such as competently executing government policy, not being corrupt, not stealing from the population, etc. Governments that fail to meet this threshold could be considered “bad.”) Thus in an established democracy, when by misfortune citizens happen to get the odd “bad” government, it is worth a potentially costly effort (i.e., an extended protest) to replace that government, because you are confident your replacement will probably be good.

In a new regime, however, citizens may have much less confidence about the universe of potential governments, i.e., whether in general most governments are good or most governments are bad. Consider the case of Ukraine in 2005 following the Orange Revolution. Citizens have observed a number of bad governments. This may be because (a) non-democratic governments are bad or (b) most Ukrainian politicians are corrupt. At the time of the Orange Revolution, Ukrainians may have been motivated to protest because they believed (a) to be the case, and thus switching to a more democratic system would usher in a period where governments would be generally good. However, if 2005-2010 reveals nothing more than a series of bad, democratically elected, governments in Ukraine, then Ukrainian citizens may come to believe that they are simply living in a world where all Ukrainian governments are bad. And if that’s the case, why bother protesting again?


Which brings us back to Egypt. If political developments proceed as expected, then at some point in the near future Egypt will have democratic elections. My post today should be taken as a warning that to expect the events of early 2011 to serve as a guarantee of good governance in the post-Mubarak era might be naïve. Indeed, to the extent that any post-Mubarak government fails to live up the expectations of the Egyptian citizenry, it might counter-intuitively make those citizens less likely to protest in the future. Thus the stakes for Egypt’s initial post-Mubarak governments may be even higher than we already expect."

I think this can also be expanded to describe our failure at enacting a variety of changes, not just changes in government...

Unless one fundamentally believes that people in this region (or the developing world as a whole) are inherently inferior to those in the currently democratic, developed nations then the full UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL GOVERNMENTS"/SOLUTIONS EXISTS exists for us as well– and there is no fundamental reason we should not have access to that whole universe! I'm sick of hearing people’s ideas put down because “the West doesn’t even have that”… I don’t recall the men of the renaissance only aspiring to achieving parity with the Ottomans or Chinese, or the US founding fathers limiting themselves to what the UK had…

Fundamentally, it also comes down to stop giving ourselves excuses… when we are abroad and the streets are clean, people stand in lines, etc we think “Tab why can’t we do this?” and a myriad of problems arise: lack of education, people are lazy, etc. etc… The answer needs to be “WE CAN DO THIS” and the thinking should be on how to enact that, instead of wasting mental energy as to why it CANT be done… 

Yeah, it won’t happen overnight but having the belief that we actually can reach there is the first step… It sounds cheesy but I do believe we live with this strange complex about our ability vis-à-vis that of Western nations/people..

Much of the summary provided by this excellent piece on the Wall Street Journal by one of the authors http://ow.ly/agzsf

24 Comments
Japanese cam girls link
1/1/2014 06:09:13 pm

Hello, i learn your weblog often and that i own the same one and i used to be just questioning in the event you get a number of spam feedback? if this is the case how do you halt it, any plugin or something you may advocate? I am getting very much these days it's driving me mad so any help may be very much appreciated.

Reply
sobre sua link
4/13/2014 08:18:24 pm

I couldn't agree more...

Reply
www.myschoolonline.eu link
3/4/2014 03:16:58 pm

Thanks for making the honest attempt to speak about this. I believe very robust approximately it and want to read more.

Reply
Friv link
4/9/2014 01:17:52 pm

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Reply
smoking effect link
7/1/2014 09:47:01 pm

Fundamentally, furthermore, it comes down to prevent providing yourself excuses… if we are offshore and also the pavement are fresh, people remain inside traces, for example we feel “Tab the reason can’t we do this? ” and also many issues happen: insufficient training, everyone is lazy, for example. etc… The result must be “WE ARE ABLE TO DO THIS” and also the contemplating ought to be about how for you to enact that will, as opposed to throwing away mind vitality as to the reasons it WON'T BE ABLE TO be performed.

Reply
Friv4 link
1/14/2015 03:08:09 pm

i like this. thanks

Reply
baixar whatsapp gratis link
2/8/2015 04:37:26 pm

Good people can be happy and wealthy life

Reply
Friv link
11/9/2015 07:23:57 pm

This is also a very good post which I really enjoyed reading. It is not everyday that I have the possibility to see something like this.

Reply
Kizi 3 link
11/23/2015 10:56:02 pm

Thanks for your great article friend, i get new information, new ideas to do somethings, i hope you will share again, i keep waiting for next post, thanks.

Reply
Friv 10 link
12/9/2015 06:06:26 pm

you always bring everyone the most interesting and useful, I like it all, thank you.

Reply
Friv 10000 link
1/6/2016 07:04:05 pm

You click here to discover interesting things decent thanks alot
http://www.friv4schoolonline.com

Reply
Friv 1 link
1/14/2016 01:33:07 am

This is something special! never seen this before! thank you

Reply
Yepi link
1/17/2016 04:43:29 am

You need to kill time, you need entertainment. Refer to our website. hope you get the most comfort.
Thanks you for sharing!
<a href="http://www.Yepi4Girl.com">Yepi</a>
<a href="http://www.kizi4girl.com">Kizi</a>
<a href="http://www.friv-online.net"> Friv</a>
<a href="http://www.friv-online.org"> Friv Games</a>

Reply
Kizi 4 link
2/22/2016 02:15:42 am

You are stressed and tired, you need entertainment. Refer to our website. hope you get the most comfortable.

Reply
Friv 4 link
3/12/2016 04:39:02 am

thank you for your interest in welcome visit
http://www.friv45online.com

Reply
Friv 100 link
3/12/2016 06:44:37 pm

Thanks for the best blog.it was very useful for me.keep sharing such ideas in the future as well.this was actually what i was looking for,and i am glad to came here!

Reply
Friv link
4/5/2016 12:48:29 am

New attractive game . I will play it every day

Reply
Friv 2 link
4/5/2016 12:49:02 am

I would like to say that this article really convinced me, you give me best information!

Reply
kizi200 link
5/29/2016 09:59:42 am

Play the Best Free Games! We've picked out the racing games, cooking games, candy crush, games shooting, fashion games, ...
Thanks for sharing !
<a href="http://www.kizi200-games.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Kizi 200</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.friv1-online.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Friv 1</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.y88-online.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Y88</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.y9-online.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Y9</strong></a>

Reply
Friv 100 link
7/15/2016 01:49:04 am

You want to relax after a stressful working hours. Refer to our website. hope you get the most comfort.
Thanks for sharing !
<a href="http://www.friv100-online.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Friv 100</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.friv8-games.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Friv 8</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.friv2-play.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Friv 2</strong></a>

Reply
GirlsGoGames DressUp link
7/18/2016 01:49:15 am

You want to relax after a stressful working hours. Refer to our website. Hope you get the most comfort.
Thanks for sharing !
<a href="http://www.girlsgogamesdressup.com/" title="GirlsGoGames" rel="nofollow"><strong>GirlsGoGames</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.kizi100-online.com/" title="Kizi 100" rel="nofollow"><strong>Kizi 100</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.frvi-online.com/" title="Frvi" rel="nofollow"><strong>Frvi</strong></a>

Reply
games2girls link
8/18/2016 07:50:28 am

You need to have time to take care of the kids active. Please visit our website and play exciting flash games.
Thanks you for sharing!
<a href="http://www.games2girlsfree.com/" title="Games 2 Girls" rel="nofollow"><strong>Games2Girls</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.kizi1000-online.com/" title="Kizi 1000" rel="nofollow"><strong>Kizi 1000</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.frin-online.com/" title="Frin" rel="nofollow"><strong>Frin</strong></a>
<a href="http://www.friv3-play.com/" title="Friv 3" rel="nofollow"><strong>Friv 3</strong></a>

Reply
Friv 100 link
12/10/2016 11:14:45 pm

really amazing post .... keep it up

Reply
Kizi 1000 link
2/18/2017 11:00:40 pm

Your article is very good.thank you very much.
http://www.juegos-friv4school.com

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Blog Categories

    All
    Data Analysis
    Economy
    Egypt
    Governance
    Islam
    Islamist
    Ngos
    Polls
    Scaf

    Archives

    December 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.