Exit Polls in Egypt's Presidential Elections

5/23/2012

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UPDATE: Day Two "Exit Poll" Results

I will continue to post as the exit poll results come out then switch to another post to aggregate preliminary voting count results as apparently the FJP/MB organization 

1. Moussa Campaign from Twitter: Claims very close race between Morsi and Moussa (obvoiusly within the margin of error, although they don't have details on their figures to confirm that).  Moussa campaign is claiming that exit polls "are conducted by representatives in 13,000 polling stations in all governorates."

2. AlJazeera Arabic: Exit polls have a four way very close race (all of them within margin of error I would assume).  According to Jamal El Shayyal at AlJazeera the polling included 60,000 people...

Both figures are below... But again, keep in mind the exit polling industry is nascent (was somewhat of a trivial endeavor in Mubarak days) so take these results with skepticism...
So below are comparisons of three different “exit poll” (very loose use of the word!) results that I have come across this morning… See below for tables and details (click on images below the text for larger versions and links are provided to all original sources through highlighted red ink & aggregated pre-elections polls can be found here)

1.   Amr Moussa Campaign: Morsi, Moussa, Fotouh, Sabbahy, Shafiq
2.   Guy with Hala Sarhan on her show: 3 guys neck and neck, Moussa has no chance
3.   @Sandmonkey: Sabahi, Fotouh and Shafiq neck and neck then Morsi then Moussa
4.   “Rights & Citizenship Center” : Morsi & Fotouh tie, then Shafik, then Sabbahi & Moussa tie
5.   @FJPartyOrg : Corroborates Morsi lead but won't release results til after polls close


So numbers 1, 2, 4 and 5 all have Morsi in the lead or tied for it but other percentages vary. 

For Moussa Campaign polls Moussa comes in second place, while the other polls have him faring very poorly.  The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has Morsi and Aboul Fotouh tied with Shafik 

While I have never heard of them before, The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has some details of who leads in which governorates- will paste below as well. (Also, where they polled specifically)

Hala Sarhan guy (apparently from Al-Ahram center) doesn’t specifically state who is in the lead – just that Moussa is doing poorly, specifically “that Amr Moussa has no chance of winning” and that there are three people who are neck and neck in the race – Shafiq, Sabbahi and Aboul Fotouh.  

The above polling seems to corroborate with @Sandmonkey’s – as his article states :” Abol Futouh, Hamdeen & Shafik neck & neck at the top of the race. Then Morsi and fifth comes Amr Moussa.”  However, the pollster on the Hala Sarhan show did not explicitly mention that Morsi was doing poorly - just that three were neck and neck, while Moussa is doing poorly - so while not corroborating Sandmonkey's Moussa conclusion, it does not negate it per se.

Obviously the methodologies are not disclosed (guy in video mentions something about 3,000 phone calls but I believe that applies to the pre-election polling they were doing – unclear).

No official results will be announced until next week, and the early releases could be politically motivated (i.e. intended to influence the vote).

Moussa polls disclaimer: The percent of “others” was not stated in the first poll in the stayed the same as the second polling.

Participation rates: http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/live-updates-candidates-cast-their-ballots

Abu Bakr al-Guindi, head of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), estimated that the projected turnout of the presidential election will be roughly 60%, based on voter behavior on Wednesday.

Guy in Hala Sarhan video claims that participation rates was 12% of registered voters for the first day.

Egypt President Election Polls
From "Rights and Citizenship Center" polls
Rights and Citizenship Center Details
النحو التالي :

... محافظة القاهرة :
مدرسة رفاعة الطهطاوي الابتدائية - مدينة نصر .
مدرسة الروضة الإعدادية بنين - مصر القديمة
مدرسة الجبرتي الابتدائية - منشية ناصر

محافظة الاسكندرية :
مدرسة السلام الصناعية - الرمل .
مدرسة الإخلاص الإعدادية بنات - محرم بك.
المعهد الديني الأزهري بكرموز .
مركز شباب سموحة .

محافظة الشرقية :
مدرسة السادات الإعدادية بنات - الزقازيق .
مدرسة جمال عبد الناصر الثانوية بنات - ديرب نجم.

محافظة الإسماعيلية :
مدرسة علي بن أبي طالب - أبو صوير .
مدرسة التل الكبير الابتدائية بنين .

محافظة أسوان :
مدرسة باحثة البادية الابتدائية - أسوان .
مدرسة نجع هلال الابتدائية - نجع هلال.
المدرسة الابتدائية بجزيرة سهيل - ادفو .

وشملت العينة التي أجري عليها الاستطلاع 1311 ناخبا موزعين كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة 327
محافظة الاسكندرية 414
محافظة الشرقية 275
محافظة الاسماعيلية 158
محافظة أسوان 137

وكانت النتائج العامة كالتالي :
د. محمد مرسي : 22.7%
د. عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح : 22.2%
ف . أحمد شفيق : 14.4%
أ. حمدين صباحي : 9.6%
أ. عمرو موسى : 9.4%
مرشحون آخرون : 14.8%
رفض ذكر مرشحه : 5.6%
أبطل صوته : 1.3%

بينما جاء ترتيب المرشحين في كل محافظة على حدة كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة :
أحمد شفيق
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
محمد مرسي

محافظة الاسكندرية :
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
حمدين صباحي
محمد مرسي

محافظة الشرقية :
محمد مرسي
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
أحمد شفيق

محافظة الإسماعيلية:
محمد مرسي
حمدين صباحي
عمرو موسى

محافظة أسوان :
عمرو موسى
أحمد شفيق
محمد مرسي 
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An Aggregation and Analysis of Egyptian Presidential Election Polls

5/21/2012

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All the polls seem to indicate is that Ahmed Shafiq is on a steady rise over the past month.  Morsi and Sabbahi also seem to be showing some improvement towards end of polling dates.  Additionally, polls also seem to show that Aboul Fotouh has had a recent decline; moreoever, while Amr Moussa is the apparent front-runner  the trending shows that he has had substantial declines across all polls.

Ahram Center, whose polls indicate that Moussa has a large lead, uses the best methodology as far as I can tell - given that they do face to face interviews whereas the others do telephone calls.  The issue is that they do not provide details about the demographic breakdown of their sample size (particularly important is the economic breakdown).

However, the other two polls indicate that Shafiq will likely be the victor (or at least garner the most votes in first round).  It is important to note though that these two polls also indicate that they derive much of their sample from the higher socio-economic portion of society - which is not directly indicative of Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, remember that it is voting people that count so if the voting population tends to be higher income, then these polls will be closer to reality).

One likely expanation for the large differences between Ahram and others is that, it seems, Ahram polls do not appear to give the option of undecided.  They seemed to do that in some of the polls (4/27 and 5/11 polls) but even then the figure was around 11%-12%, far below the figures seen in the other polls.  Again, poll results are largely dependent on the questions you ask and how you ask them - I would assume that is likely in play here.

For those who think polls in Egypt are useless, the below may help provide you with some backup for that.

For those who think the polls are useful, the data below may provide some useful insights.

(Click on images for larger versions...) To see preliminary results of Egyptian votes from abroad please click here
Ahram Polling Egypt
Note that the strange behavior in the beginning of April period is due to the presence of Abu Ismail and Suleiman, who were disqualified between the April 17th and April 23rd polls.
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New Arab Opinion Poll: Failed pasts and optimistic futures

3/28/2012

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For aggregation of previous polls please see: www.ducoht.org/polls.html

Executive Summary of Arabic Opinion Index poll with more results to be released (although there is apparently a 90-page document sent out to researchers)....

The survey in question was conducted during 2011 in 12 Arab countries: Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine (the West Bank and Gaza), Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen. It was carried out via multi-staged cluster samples representative of the societies included, with a margin of error not exceeding 3.5 percent. Overall, some 16,173 respondents were interviewed, with the assistance of several Arab research centers.

Support for Arab Revolutions

Most Arab citizens support the Arab revolutions:
  • 70 percent of respondents supported the protests that ended the rule of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, 
  • 80 percent express support for the protests which ousted former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. 
  • (Respondents in Saudi Arabia were not asked their opinion of the Egyptian revolution; likewise, respondents in Sudan were not asked about either the Egyptian or the Tunisian revolutions.)
  • The vast majority of respondents from Egypt and Tunisia said they believed that within three years, their countries’ situations would be better than they were during the reigns of Mubarak and Ben Ali.
Arabs and Democracy

The survey’s results show democracy to be well-rooted in Arab public opinion. Most respondents (81 percent) were able to detail a meaningful, substantive type of democratic system which they would accept as fitting their needs.

Arab citizens focus on political aspects when defining democracy: the respondents emphasized the following as important to the functioning of a democracy:
  • political pluralism, 
  • the protection of political and civil liberties
  • social justice
  • transfer of power, 
  • 12 percent of respondents emphasized the importance of matters related to economic and social development, security and stability in democracy.
Support for Democracy is high
  • More than two-thirds support a democratic system and see it as the best system, “even if imperfect”, 
  • 15 percent of respondents oppose democracy
  • However, 36% wouldn't support those whom they disagree with in political platform to take power
Religion and Politics
  • Most respondents described themselves as either “very religious” or “religious to a certain extent,” 
  • 71 percent report that their interactions with others – economic, human, political or social – are not affected by whether or not their interlocutor is religious non-religious (whether or not that person is religiously observant
  • A strong plurality, 47 percent, supports the argument that “religious practices are private practices and should be separated from public life and politics,” against 38 percent who oppose it.
  • Public opinion regarding this principle of the separation of religion from politics is divided, as shown by the survey results, despite the fact that the same principle is strongly in evidence when it comes to practical demands: two-thirds of respondents, as reported above, being opposed to the idea of clerical interference in politics, rejecting the idea that clerics be able to influence voting by the public or matters of government policy.
Confidence in State institutions:
  • 77 percent express confidence in their armies, 
  • half feel the same about their countries’ general security apparatus (a term which is variably the police or the state security services). 
  • 57 percent expressed confidence in the judicial system 
  • less than half of respondents have confidence in their governments (47 percent) 
  • 36 percent express confidence in the parliaments
Views on country legislative branches:

Corruption and fairness
  • 83 percent feel that financial and administrative corruption is very widespread, as opposed to only 4 percent who believe that it is not prevalent, 
  • Most respondents expressing the view that their countries’ legal code is not equally applied to all citizens (“justice is not blind” in Arab countries, one could say).
Arab Unity
  • (71 percent) believe that the population of the Arab world represents a single nation, 
  • 50% firmly believe that  that the peoples of this nation are distinguished from each other by particular characteristics and features
  • This contrasts with a mere 17 percent of respondents who see the various peoples in different Arab states as being tied by only weak, tenuous bonds.
  • Public opinion in the Arab region largely supports an increase in cooperation among Arab countries; additionally, it supports taking necessary actions that are unifying in nature, including the establishment of joint Arab military forces, in addition to individual countries’ respective armies, the abolition of customs and tariffs on trade among Arab countries, and the unification of monetary systems with the aim of creating a single Arab currency.
  • 84 percent believe that the Palestinian cause is an issue which unites all Arabs, not only the Palestinians.
  • The perception of a single nation is reinforced by the ability of most respondents (81 percent) to name countries that represent a source of threat to the security of the Arab homeland; there was little notable opposition to the concept of there being a possible threat to something like the “Arab homeland,” serving to further highlight the acceptance of Arab-ness amongst the people of these countries.
Israel, US, and others
  • 73 percent of respondents believe that Israel and the United States are the two countries that most threaten the security of the Arab world
  • Followed by Iran at 5 percent (further reinforces tons of polls that point to the same – the Shiite/Sunni divide, in my opinion, is largely driven by governments and not so much the people)
  • 84 percent reject government recognition of Israel, including in countries whose governments have signed peace agreements w/ Israel, while only 10 percent support it
  • Arab-Israeli peace agreements enjoy support from just 21 percent of respondents
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