Egypt Data Blog
  • Home
  • Blog/Politics
  • Voting
    • Votes vs. Demographics
    • Egypt Presidential Results and Analysis
    • Parliament Elections >
      • District Information
      • Seat Distributions
      • By District Votes/Seats
      • Analysis
      • Political Party Orientation
      • Shura Council
    • Referendum
  • Polls
  • Sinai/Bedouins
  • SCAF
    • Tantawi - SCAF Member Background
    • Tarek ElMahdi - SCAF Member Background
    • Sami Annan - SCAF Member Background
    • Mohamed El-Assar - SCAF Member Background
    • Reda Hafez - SCAF Member Background
    • Ismail Othman - SCAF Member Background
  • Economy

An Aggregation and Analysis of Egyptian Presidential Election Polls

5/21/2012

97 Comments

 
All the polls seem to indicate is that Ahmed Shafiq is on a steady rise over the past month.  Morsi and Sabbahi also seem to be showing some improvement towards end of polling dates.  Additionally, polls also seem to show that Aboul Fotouh has had a recent decline; moreoever, while Amr Moussa is the apparent front-runner  the trending shows that he has had substantial declines across all polls.

Ahram Center, whose polls indicate that Moussa has a large lead, uses the best methodology as far as I can tell - given that they do face to face interviews whereas the others do telephone calls.  The issue is that they do not provide details about the demographic breakdown of their sample size (particularly important is the economic breakdown).

However, the other two polls indicate that Shafiq will likely be the victor (or at least garner the most votes in first round).  It is important to note though that these two polls also indicate that they derive much of their sample from the higher socio-economic portion of society - which is not directly indicative of Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, remember that it is voting people that count so if the voting population tends to be higher income, then these polls will be closer to reality).


One likely expanation for the large differences between Ahram and others is that, it seems, Ahram polls do not appear to give the option of undecided.  They seemed to do that in some of the polls (4/27 and 5/11 polls) but even then the figure was around 11%-12%, far below the figures seen in the other polls.  Again, poll results are largely dependent on the questions you ask and how you ask them - I would assume that is likely in play here.

For those who think polls in Egypt are useless, the below may help provide you with some backup for that.

For those who think the polls are useful, the data below may provide some useful insights.


(Click on images for larger versions...) To see preliminary results of Egyptian votes from abroad please click here
Overview of Egypt Polling Organizatoins
Ahram Polling Egypt
Note that the strange behavior in the beginning of April period is due to the presence of Abu Ismail and Suleiman, who were disqualified between the April 17th and April 23rd polls.
Baseera Egypt Polling
Egypt Cabinet Information Center Polling

97 Comments
Austin link
6/6/2012 09:45:28 am

I wish all the people saying the polls were way off had would read this piece and realise that perhaps they just couldn't read the polls, and that people were changing their minds up until the last minute. I had even commented before that the strong support in the Ahram polls for moussa might be "soft support" as it was people who would have answered "I don't know" if they had that option. He was the best known name in the race....

Reply
Pierre link
3/4/2014 06:56:54 pm

I agree with you...

Reply
Nishan Singh link
12/11/2023 01:56:38 am

I appreciate, cause I found exactly what I was looking for. You’ve ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day.

Reply
Arun Sharma link
12/12/2023 09:29:04 pm

Hi my friend! I want to say that this article is amazing, great written and include almost all vital infos. I would like to see extra posts like this.

Reply
Inclusion Instruction link
11/16/2013 01:09:28 am

We desire every one of the men and women saying the particular polls have been method off of got could examine this kind of part and know of which possibly they will simply just would not read the polls, and this citizens were transforming the brains getting the club the final second. I had perhaps mentioned just before how the sturdy service from the Ahram polls for moussa could possibly be "soft support" because it was people who would have solved "I don't know" as long as they got of which alternative.

Reply
buy youtube comments link
11/16/2013 02:55:10 pm

“One’s affiliates, previous and existing, as well as someone’s perform, may effectively be regarded in identifying health and health and fitness and commitment.”

Reply
http://www.aspiration-centralisee-paca.com link
11/20/2013 07:02:31 pm

As an higher middle-class United states at an top level secondary university in Pittsburgh, what was remaining for me to do.

Reply
click link
11/22/2013 05:27:51 pm

“Can any shaded man, or any white-colored man helpful to the independence of all men, ever ignore the evening which followed the first day of Jan, 1863, when the globe was to see if Abraham Lincoln subsequently would confirm to be as excellent as his word.

Reply
bathing suits for women link
11/27/2013 03:46:53 pm

Consider buying your protection from the same organization that includes your home. You should also ask whether you be eligible for a any discount rates the organization offers.

Reply
right there link
12/15/2013 05:57:28 am

that would be of a great use for me in future

Reply
oakland airport transportation link
12/16/2013 12:32:13 pm

A fascinating discussion is worth comment. I do believe that you ought to write more on this subject, it might not be a taboo subject but usually people don't discuss such subjects. To the next! All the best!!

Reply
Pakistan Idol 3rd Episode link
12/16/2013 08:02:26 pm

I wish all the people saying the polls were way off had would read this piece and realise that perhaps they just couldn't read the polls,

Reply
access the video library online link
12/18/2013 12:34:56 am

As an higher middle-class United states at an top level secondary university in Pittsburgh, what was remaining for me to do.

Reply
click here link
12/18/2013 03:22:38 am

Thank you for another essential article. Where else could anyone get that kind of information in such a complete way of writing.

Reply
Bellevue Towers link
12/19/2013 03:21:19 pm

Where else could anyone get that kind of information in such a complete way of writing.

Reply
https://www.facebook.com/textyourexbackreview link
1/1/2014 07:03:07 pm

A fascinating discussion is worth comment. I do believe that you ought to write more on this subject, it might not be a taboo subject but usually people don't discuss such subjects. To the next! All the best!!

Reply
great details link
1/5/2014 07:50:03 pm

Really interesting article. Moreover, I can say that this is indeed interesting insight. Thank you for sharing it.

Reply
Distressed Leather Jacket link
1/29/2014 08:12:12 am

Exceptional post I really like the content really like how you defined everything, your are performing a terrific employment most of others like you by means of of which form of beneficial blogs supply awareness in order to people relevant to many points. My partner and i go through a few other fascinating sites out of your internet websites along with I'm a whole lot curious with your blogging ability, We also begun to generate sites and this variety sites really aid me personally out there. My partner and i previously saved your web site as well as discussed the sites to be able to my own colleagues not simply myself yet every one of them just like your own blogging and site-building knowledge, expect people compose far more fascinating weblogs like this just one and best of luck for the future information sites.

Reply
real estate seo link
2/18/2014 11:54:08 pm

t I really like the content really like how you defined everything, your are performing a terrific employment most of others like you by means of of which form of beneficial blogs supply awareness in order to people relevant to many points. My partner and i go through a few other fascinating sites out of your internet websites along with I'm a whole lot curious with your blogging ability, We also begun to generate sites and this variety sites really aid me personally out there. My partner and i previously saved your web site as well as discussed the sites to be able to my own colleagues not simply myself yet every one of them just like your own blogging and site-building knowledge, expect people compose far more fascinating weblogs like this just one and best of luck for the future information sites.

Reply
long dress murah product link
2/18/2014 11:59:40 pm

you’re really a good webmaster. The site loading speed is incredible. It seems that you are doing any unique trick. Also, The contents are masterpiece. you have done a fantastic job on this topic!

Reply
baju dress murah terpercaya link
2/19/2014 12:00:18 am

Mike. I’ve never owned a Fuji, so I can’t really say for sure. Sorry. If the gi isn’t pre-shrunk and it fits you well now, you’ll probably be in trouble if you dry it.

Reply
dress murah online terpercaya link
2/19/2014 12:00:56 am

Generally I do not read article on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very forced me to try and do it! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, very nice article.

Reply
toko obat kolesterol alami link
3/14/2014 02:01:44 pm

I hate the new colors. Don’t change it. Please. But the change of name to the Rays is good. But the uniforms are hideious. I will not buy any gear with those colors on it I’m sorry

Reply
obat penurun kolesterol online link
3/14/2014 02:02:13 pm

Awesome blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your design.

Reply
jamu obat tradisional kolesterol link
3/14/2014 02:02:44 pm

Great tip post!\r\n\r\nWas just looking this info up and came across your page here and it is exactly what i was looking for…all the way down to the “seattle” hang dry comment..hehe (redmond).

Reply
mukena bordir murah parasut link
3/15/2014 03:12:48 pm

Congratulations for posting such a useful weblog. Your blog is not only informative but also extremely artistic too. There usually are extremely couple of individuals who can write not so easy articles that creatively. Keep up the great work !!

Reply
mukena cantik parasut link
3/15/2014 03:13:07 pm

Awesome blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your design.

Reply
jual mukena murah meriah link
3/15/2014 03:13:58 pm

Hey, you have written the resume with all necessary sections, which is making it unique. You can also have a look at aroj.com. You will get more ideas for adding weight on resume.

Reply
deposit money link
3/31/2014 01:44:05 am

Actually I am not habituate to reply a comment on blogs but this blog caught my attention and I am compelled to write a comment here to express my gratitude to you. I would like to appreciate for this awesome work

Reply
view website link
4/14/2014 08:13:38 am

Nice information, valuable and excellent design, as share good stuff with good ideas and concepts, lots of great information and inspiration, both of which I need, thanks to offer such a helpful information here.

Reply
buy vine followers link
5/12/2014 03:25:49 pm

Not something we old thoughts are outstanding at. comprehend more .and I've tried many of them! It is simple in style and has been working completely for more than 4 a few several weeks now. Trying to do a scallop sew hem.

Reply
jhjhhjhjh link
5/23/2014 09:38:54 pm

My partner and i previously saved your web site as well as discussed the sites to be able to my own colleagues

Reply
White Label SEO link
5/23/2014 11:29:59 pm

I have been searching in many websites and I finally found it here. Amazing article. I am so impressed. Could never think of such a thing is possible with it...I think you have a great knowledge especially while dealings with such subjects.

Reply
This website link
6/5/2014 05:35:14 am

I prefer to study this kind of material. Nicely written information in this post, the quality of content is fine and the conclusion is lovely. Things are very open and intensely clear explanation of issues

Reply
Stropløs Bh link
6/11/2014 05:45:47 pm

This is first time that I visit here. I found so many exciting matter in this particular blog, One thing I would like to request you that pls keep posting such type of informatics blog.

Reply
best vacuum for hardwood floors link
6/11/2014 10:56:05 pm

This topic has always been one of my favorite subjects to read about. I have found your post to be very rousing and full of good information. I will check your other articles shortly.

Reply
Timber Merchants Preston link
6/18/2014 06:58:16 pm

Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it,you are a great author. I will be sure to bookmark your blog and may come back very soon.

Reply
siliconen bh link
6/28/2014 07:51:53 pm

I just read through the entire article of yours and it was quite good. This is a great article thanks for sharing this informative information. Its really good article i fully read this content..

Reply
smoking effect link
7/1/2014 12:10:38 am

Nonetheless, additional 2 polls indicate that will Shafiq will probably be this victor (or at the very least get the most ballots with primary round). You should be aware nevertheless the 2 polls furthermore indicate that they can uncover a lot of his or her taste from the higher socio-economic portion of culture : that's ultimately a measure of Egypt in its entirety. (Nevertheless, bear in mind it is voting folks that rely and so should the voting populace is usually higher cash flow, after that these kinds of polls will probably be nearer to reality).

Reply
smoking weed link
7/1/2014 12:57:40 am

Nevertheless, another a pair of polls indicate that will Shafiq is going to be the actual victor (or at the least garner one of the most ballots in initial round). You should note though the particular a pair of polls likewise indicate which they uncover most of their test from the increased socio-economic part of modern society : that's in some way indicative involving Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, don't forget that it is voting people who depend therefore should the voting populace is often increased revenue, and then these types of polls will probably be nearer to reality).

Reply
cover letter examples link
7/1/2014 11:55:43 pm

Ahram Heart, as their polls suggest that Moussa includes a substantial steer, uses the very best system as far as I'm able to explain to - given that they perform face to face interview while whilst perform messages or calls. The issue is that they can't supply specifics about the actual demographic description with their trial sizing (particularly crucial could be the economical breakdown).

Reply
smoking effect link
7/2/2014 05:55:03 pm

Just one very likely expanation for your big distinctions among Ahram while others is of which, it seems, Ahram polls don't apparently provide alternative connected with undecided.

Reply
smoking weed link
7/3/2014 07:13:57 pm

On the other hand, one other 2 polls show which Shafiq will probably be the victor (or at least get by far the most ballots throughout initial round). It is very important notice however these 2 polls also show that they uncover most of their test in the larger socio-economic portion of contemporary society - which is ultimately a measure associated with Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, remember that it must be voting people who count so if the voting population is frequently larger cash flow, and then these types of polls will be closer to reality).

Reply
Door Casings link
7/9/2014 12:37:13 pm

Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it,you are a great author. I will be sure to bookmark your blog and may come back very soon.

Reply
дизайн интерьера Москва link
7/30/2014 09:47:26 pm

The world is changing fast. people are also being changed.day by day we are becoming more dependant on degital system.yoU make me think of this really.You have a nice way of sharing your thoughts.

Reply
how to be rich link
8/1/2014 06:29:37 pm

Hey there thanks for showing me this. I must say that your blogpost was the most enjoying read I've seen in a long time. Greetings from

Reply
earn online link
8/3/2014 09:53:16 pm

you are really great webmaster . website loading speed is very good .

Reply
Soutien-gorge invisible link
8/8/2014 09:50:26 pm

I really enjoy looking through on this website , it has got superb articles . "The great secret of power is never to will to do more than you can accomplis

Reply
High Pagerank Backlinks link
8/28/2014 09:06:15 pm

The world is changing fast. people are also being changed.day by day we are becoming more dependant on degital system.yoU make me think of this really.You have a nice way of sharing your thoughts.

Reply
Buy Backlinks link
8/28/2014 09:06:44 pm

The world is changing fast. people are also being changed.day by day we are becoming more dependant on degital system.yoU make me think of this really.You have a nice way of sharing your thoughts.

Reply
Resident Evil 6 Costumes link
9/17/2014 09:09:00 am

This post is just fantastic, i really like your blogging skills

Reply
partytent huren zeeland link
9/17/2014 02:28:09 pm

Hi my friend! I wish to say that this post is amazing, nice written and include approximately all important infos.

Reply
push up bh link
9/22/2014 03:30:12 pm

I just got to this amazing site not long ago. I was actually captured with the piece of resources you have got here. Big thumbs up for making such wonderful blog page!

Reply
Drive Jacket link
10/20/2014 04:23:43 am

This post is quite interesting and informative

Reply
verhuisbedrijf hilversum link
12/8/2014 03:21:03 am

Nice blog! The content is impress me. Thanks for sharing.

Reply
juegos link
8/5/2016 12:03:10 pm

Valuable info.

Reply
Hunza link
6/28/2019 03:38:04 am

Amazing insight! Not much of a change for me. Just slightly upwards. It is very hard to get into Google news and if they see you publishing the content of others

Reply
o general 2 ton 3 star split ac link
8/6/2020 06:05:52 am

Hurrah, that is the thing that I was searching for, what a material! present here at this site, thanks administrator of this site.

Reply
Karas Kitchen link
12/1/2020 06:20:38 pm

Loved reaading this thanks

Reply
Online CBD Store India link
5/18/2021 08:31:32 am

Great job for publishing such a beneficial web site. Your web log isn’t only useful but it is additionally really creative too. <a href="https://qurist.in">Online CBD Store India</a>

Reply
senior secondary link
7/3/2021 04:47:54 am

Love this post! Such a beautiful cruise ship! I had no idea Celebrity Cruises were so fancy

Reply
Boost WiFi Speed Of Rockspace AC750 Extender link
7/11/2021 09:47:34 am

Hello, by utilizing Google I discovered your site even as chasing down a practically identical subject, your site came up, it looks truly intriguing. I bookmarked it.

Reply
UPSC EPFO Free mock tests link
8/3/2021 11:02:02 pm

Thank you so much as you have been willing to share information with us. We will forever admire all you have done here because you have made my work as easy .

Reply
Nasha Mukti Kendra in Raipur link
8/10/2021 12:45:17 am

Thank you for sharing your info. I really appreciate your efforts and I will be waiting for your further write ups thanks once again.

Reply
subject lines for email marketing link
8/12/2021 01:26:44 am

I'm exceptionally glad to look your post very supportive. I have joined your rss channel and anticipate looking for a greater amount of your fabulous post.

Reply
https://images.google.iq/url?sa=t&url=https://www.thepostzilla.com/ link
9/15/2021 10:11:55 am

I'm regarding all that amount! Imagining another extraordinary article. Positive conditions to the creator! The very best!

Reply
digital marketing agency link
12/17/2021 01:15:42 am

Very elegantly composed. This blog has every one of the necessary parts that I was searching for. The focuses are all around featured, expressing the genuine importance. Straightforward and read.

Reply
hotel sustainability solutions link
12/17/2021 02:59:07 am

For most up to date news you need to visit web and on web I observed this site page as a best site for freshest updates.

Reply
메이저사이트 link
4/17/2022 11:34:08 pm

You made some good points there. I did a Google search about the topic and found most people will believe your blog.메이저사이트

Reply
how to check pc specs link
10/12/2022 09:53:22 pm

https://laptopspecsonline.com/check-pc-specs-before-buy-a-new-pc-desktop-in-2022/

Reply
control the Mi range extender link
11/18/2022 02:21:30 am

You should partake in a challenge for one of the greatest quality destinations on the web. I will suggest this site!

Reply
solitaire rings for men link
4/15/2023 11:45:24 pm

I read this post, your post is so nice and very informative, thanks for sharing this post.

Reply
Hemp oil buy India link
4/29/2023 02:13:32 am

I like your blog very much keep doing this kind of writing.

Reply
CBD Oil buy India link
5/22/2023 08:50:04 am

Great article ...Thanks for your great information, the contents are quiet interesting. I will be waiting for your next post.

Reply
buy pet accessories online link
7/6/2023 12:08:54 am

The blog post offers a comprehensive aggregation and analysis of Egyptian presidential election polls. This insightful article examines the dynamics of the election process, providing valuable perspectives on the candidates and their support. It sheds light on the complex political landscape of Egypt during this crucial period.

Reply
Deaddiction centre Bhopal link
8/28/2023 08:46:56 am

I gained some new insights from your post. Thank you for that.

Reply
Nail Salon Ludhiana link
9/29/2023 06:47:40 am

In this article you have provided extremely interesting explanations on the subject. Keep up your wonderful work.

Reply
Fire Extinguisher Certification link
10/22/2023 10:50:48 pm

I'm looking forward to your next post. Your blog is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Reply
Corporate Promotional Gifts link
10/30/2023 12:34:38 am

Thank you for sharing such great information. It's really helpful for me. I'm always looking for quality content and finally I found this in your post.

Reply
Financial Planning Consultant in india link
11/1/2023 12:39:17 am

This is very interesting, good job and thanks for sharing such a good blog.

Reply
Best video conferencing software link
11/1/2023 11:21:04 pm

CoralVision is the best video conferencing software provider, offering seamless, high-definition virtual meetings. Its user-friendly interface, robust security features, and excellent customer support make it an ideal choice for businesses and individuals seeking reliable online communication solutions.

Reply
Herpes Medication Treatment link
11/3/2023 02:18:09 am

I've shared this post with my friends because I think it's something everyone should read.

Reply
Best Financial Advisor in Gurgaon link
11/6/2023 12:52:16 am

Thank you for sharing such great information. It's really helpful for me. I'm always looking for quality content and finally I found this in your post.

Reply
Holiday rental cleaning Gold Coast link
11/15/2023 03:56:20 am

We provide Holiday rental cleaning Gold Coast, Holiday rental cleaning service near me, Holiday rental cleaning service, Holidays rental cleaning rates, Housekeeping for vacation rentals, Vacation rental cleaning company, Vacation rental cleaning price, Vacation rental cleaning.

Reply
Multi Family Office link
11/15/2023 11:17:36 pm

Enjoyed reading the article above, really explains everything in detail, the article is very interesting and effective. Thank you and good luck in the upcoming articles.

Reply
Custom embroidery services link
11/18/2023 03:48:52 am

Elevate your designs with AllCityEmb's finest Embroidery Digitizing Services. Our custom digitizing embroidery brings your vision to life with precision and style. Trust us to transform your ideas into intricately embroidered masterpieces, delivering quality that stands out.

Reply
Teardrop flags Auckland link
11/19/2023 11:49:10 pm

Broderick Print stands out as the best provider of teardrop flags in Auckland. Elevate your brand visibility with our high-quality, customizable flags. From vibrant designs to durable materials, our teardrop flags make a bold statement at events. Trust Broderick Print for unparalleled craftsmanship and eye-catching promotional solutions in Auckland.

Reply
Financial Planning Consultant link
12/3/2023 01:53:44 am

I never thought about this topic from that angle before. Your unique insights have broadened my perspective.

Reply
Free Herpes Treatment in India link
12/3/2023 10:49:03 pm

Thank you for sharing your unique perspective on this topic. It's both refreshing and thought-provoking.

Reply
Corporate Gifting Company Gurgaon link
12/5/2023 10:33:51 pm

I appreciate the way you weave personal anecdotes into your writing—it adds a wonderful touch of authenticity.

Reply
Rahul Singh link
12/15/2023 06:27:54 pm

Thanks for a great blog. I was able to get the information that I had been looking for. Thanks once again!

Reply
lady detective agency link
12/21/2023 04:00:24 am

I went over this website and I believe you have a lot of wonderful information,
We are leading <a href="https://ladydetectivesindia.com"> detective agency in delhi </a> Recognized for reliability, Lady Detectives India provides thorough and discreet investigative services as a trusted solution provider.

Reply
Makeup Services in Ludhiana link
12/29/2023 03:42:28 am

The way you engage with your readers in the comments section is fantastic. It creates a sense of community.

Reply
Asian wedding planner London link
10/7/2024 01:57:31 am

Nice post! Such good information

Reply
landscape photographer link
10/17/2024 02:37:30 am

Rob de Bara Photography offers a stunning array of fine art photography that captures the essence of beauty and emotion.

Reply
private detective agency link
2/21/2025 02:06:36 am

Leading Investigation Services by Rahul Rai Gupta in Delhi

Reply
crowdfunding platforms link
4/20/2025 11:19:30 am

Great insights on crowdfunding platforms! With so many options available, it's important to find one that aligns with your campaign goals and audience. I’m currently comparing features like fees, reach, and support tools—this article definitely helped narrow down my choices. Looking forward to launching my campaign soon!

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Blog Categories

    All
    Data Analysis
    Economy
    Egypt
    Governance
    Islam
    Islamist
    Ngos
    Polls
    Scaf

    Archives

    December 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.