All the polls seem to indicate is that Ahmed Shafiq is on a steady rise over the past month.  Morsi and Sabbahi also seem to be showing some improvement towards end of polling dates.  Additionally, polls also seem to show that Aboul Fotouh has had a recent decline; moreoever, while Amr Moussa is the apparent front-runner  the trending shows that he has had substantial declines across all polls.

Ahram Center, whose polls indicate that Moussa has a large lead, uses the best methodology as far as I can tell - given that they do face to face interviews whereas the others do telephone calls.  The issue is that they do not provide details about the demographic breakdown of their sample size (particularly important is the economic breakdown).

However, the other two polls indicate that Shafiq will likely be the victor (or at least garner the most votes in first round).  It is important to note though that these two polls also indicate that they derive much of their sample from the higher socio-economic portion of society - which is not directly indicative of Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, remember that it is voting people that count so if the voting population tends to be higher income, then these polls will be closer to reality).


One likely expanation for the large differences between Ahram and others is that, it seems, Ahram polls do not appear to give the option of undecided.  They seemed to do that in some of the polls (4/27 and 5/11 polls) but even then the figure was around 11%-12%, far below the figures seen in the other polls.  Again, poll results are largely dependent on the questions you ask and how you ask them - I would assume that is likely in play here.

For those who think polls in Egypt are useless, the below may help provide you with some backup for that.

For those who think the polls are useful, the data below may provide some useful insights.


(Click on images for larger versions...) To see preliminary results of Egyptian votes from abroad please click here
Ahram Polling Egypt
Note that the strange behavior in the beginning of April period is due to the presence of Abu Ismail and Suleiman, who were disqualified between the April 17th and April 23rd polls.

 


Comments

06/06/2012 19:45

I wish all the people saying the polls were way off had would read this piece and realise that perhaps they just couldn't read the polls, and that people were changing their minds up until the last minute. I had even commented before that the strong support in the Ahram polls for moussa might be "soft support" as it was people who would have answered "I don't know" if they had that option. He was the best known name in the race....

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We desire every one of the men and women saying the particular polls have been method off of got could examine this kind of part and know of which possibly they will simply just would not read the polls, and this citizens were transforming the brains getting the club the final second. I had perhaps mentioned just before how the sturdy service from the Ahram polls for moussa could possibly be "soft support" because it was people who would have solved "I don't know" as long as they got of which alternative.

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