Updated on Monday (12/17) morning, below are 8 slides covering (click on any slide for larger version):

1. Voting results: 57% said YES in Round 1
2. Projections for Round 2: Expected 30% turnout with 64% YES vote - yielding overall result, across both rounds, at 60% YES
3. Participation Rates: 32% in Round 1 - pretty low
4. Detailed/underlying data (any corrections welcome)

1. Voting Results

The voting results are compiled from the Ikhwan website (given their accuracy in presidential elections, I will use their voting data for now).  The registered voters for this referendum comes from Egypt Independent.  All other data comes from previous analyses that can be found sourced elsewhere on the website.
Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi
Picture
Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

2. Projections for Round 2 (and more detailed results)

The below is my humble attempt at just making projections based on historic data so it obviously does not isolate certain factors that may have existed during one election vs another - more importantly, it does not factor any effects that may have taken place since the presidential elections through today and/or any effects that on the ground campaigning may have over the coming week.

It really does not entail much more than taking data and extrapolating it so take it at face value but it is interesting in either of two cases:

1. If it is right: Then we are starting to see some voting trends across governorates and parties can begin to capitalize on this and target campaigns.  Or, I just got lucky and it was some other factors/data/variables.

2. If it is wrong: Then we see deviations in Egypt's voting across the elections and it illustrates changing tendencies and fluid loyalties.  Or, my methodology/analysis was flawed.

The biggest caveat of all the analysis on this website (thus far at least) is that it is based on governorates level data and results.  For example, in Cairo there are 43 marakiz which would allow for a much more granular analysis.

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Projections Round 2

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

3. Participation Rates

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Participation Rates
Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Participation Rates

4. Detailed/underling data

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi
Slide 3: For governorates that have not yet voted, registered voter count is based on Rnd2 of presidential elections.  For governorates that have voted already, Ahram published an atricle which had their updated registerd voter count.

Slide 8: The March 2011 referendum registered voter count is based on the parliamentary election data I found on the elections.eg website. I have not been able to find registered voters for the Mar-11 referendum, and have been told there isn't one but please let me know if you have it.
 


Comments

12/17/2012 06:04

The question you ask, 'is it all about the local?' is very important. If the local interest is the determining factor how does it explain A) decent referendum '11 turnout, and B) relatively good turnout for presidential elections C) different participation rates in the two rounds. I need polling data on attitudes to back this up, but what I've been suggesting is a 'competition effect' is responsible and your information here seems to support it. Competition in the presidential elections and the parliamentary elections was quite high, and correspondingly the turnout was high. My question then is, how has round one affected the attitudes of voters in round two? Does the ten-point gap created by round one make voters in the remaining governorates think competition is higher or lower? Yesterday I had guessed voters would see the Yes votes success on Saturday as having secured a margin guaranteeing adoption of the constitution, in turn decreasing competition, and lowering turnout below 32% which is sort of a base for two, but in itself an indicator of the entire atmosphere surrounding the vote. A lower than 32% turnout would seem to indicate to me the competition is in play. But it is obviously in contradiction to your prediction of higher turnout at 36%, however, if you're right and the natural state of turnout was always going to be higher in round two than one, but competition is seen as being decreased by round one, then perhaps we'll land right back around 32% for round two governorates.

What would be helpful is if half the round two governorates could vote first, and vice-versa, in the next election so we could compare turnout before/after with the other half acting as a control group. This would help us decide if the competition effect was driving participation up or down. Here's the post I wrote yesterday. Thanks for your work. -Troy http://troycarter.me/2012/12/16/why-many-meh-during-constitutional-referendum-in-egypt/

Reply
12/18/2012 12:25

So what we see in Round One, and maybe carried through Round Two, is a 234-article Constitution, pushed through in three weeks, approved by 18% of the population . . . .

Which provides a rather better foundation for a crisis of legitimacy than of a government.

Reply
11/17/2013 01:55

According to Minton (as paraphrased by a following comments on the decision): “if he does not like it here, let him go back where he came from.”

Reply
11/21/2013 06:02

They had satisfied the United states Desire after the most disastrous war our globe ever experienced. Creation Y, I was recommended, had to do more. But I often considered, what exactly is better than satisfying the United states Dream.

Reply
11/25/2013 06:05

Thanks for nice done :)

Reply
11/26/2013 07:07

Faculty contwent 1. It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using

Reply
12/12/2013 22:01

Hm. Are you sure? Is it proven information or just speculation?

Reply

Really awesome material, thank you for providing it.

Reply
12/12/2013 22:03

You are inspiring writer. Thank you for it very much.

Reply
12/12/2013 22:06

Interesting infographics and point of view. Thank you.

Reply
12/12/2013 22:07

Nice and informative, great article.

Reply

I wish there were more such great articles.

Reply
12/16/2013 20:44

Exceptional post however I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this subject? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Thank you!

Reply

I like what you guys tend to be up too. Such clever work and reporting! Keep up the excellent works guys I've included you guys to my personal blogroll.

Reply
12/18/2013 23:06

thank you for the great information you provide. you have done great job on the articles.

Reply
12/19/2013 02:53

This would help us decide if the competition effect was driving participation up or down. Here's the post I wrote yesterday. Thanks for your work.

Reply
12/28/2013 06:35

Exceptional post however I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this subject? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Thank you!

Reply
12/29/2013 21:24

What an interesting opinion you have! I wish I could say as clever things as you do.

Reply
01/06/2014 06:51

I enjoyed reading this article, it was really awesome. I hope that you will write second part of it.

Reply
01/14/2014 02:18

It might not be what first comes to mind when you think of sexual and reproductive health, but Pathfinder’s work is multi-faceted in its support of global public health

Reply
01/19/2014 09:54

What would be helpful is if half the round two governorates could vote first, and vice-versa, in the next election so we could compare turnout before/after with the other half acting as a control group.

Reply

Outstanding article I like your current article adore the method that you explained everything, you are carrying out a fantastic task most of others as you through that style of educational blogs produce attention to you in connection with many things. My spouse and i study a few other intriguing blogs from a sites and also I will be a lot serious using your blogs abilities, I in addition did start to generate information sites and this also sort websites genuinely assist myself out. We already book-marked ones site in addition to propagated the internet websites to help the fellow workers not merely me personally nevertheless all of them similar to ones blogging abilities, wish people create far more exciting weblogs similar to this just one and also best of luck for the upcoming weblogs.

Reply
01/30/2014 13:41

Great ! Your post is not only interesting but informative too! Cheers

Reply

Myself, the organiser, and my right hand girl, local and translator Isha turned up first with our ‘No Pants’ sign and immediately were approached by about 6 men who asked

Reply
03/07/2014 04:14

hope everything is good as what you say, good luck

Reply
03/07/2014 04:16

That's what I always see it coming from you because it was so helpful to me, thanks

Reply
03/07/2014 04:18

I will share the great things that you bring to everyone, good luck

Reply
03/07/2014 04:22

will no longer something better is the information that you provide, thanks

Reply
04/09/2014 23:19

Very Useful information, this is both good reading for, have quite a few good key points and I learn some new stuff from it too.

Reply
04/12/2014 13:39

That's what I always see it coming from you because it was so helpful to me, thanks

Reply
05/06/2014 04:05

Business known as down home music is existing and well. It will be efficient and create due regardless of what whatever is staying of the organization does.

Reply
05/12/2014 07:33

Titles like Stallion, Chesapeake, Excellent Flatlands, Quail Resources.

Reply
06/06/2014 01:42

great article I like your article title.

Reply
Anonymous
06/19/2014 08:52

As we age this careful system changes. Moreover to monitoring moment-to-moment threats such as an beginning car or a decrease banister, our threat verifying starts to intuit a distant but progressively approaching dark thinking — the approaching end, the biggest boundary. <a href="https://twitter.com/">Twitter</a>

Reply
06/25/2014 04:32

I was searching for something like this for quite a long time and at last I’ve found it on your blog. It was definitely interesting for me to read about web applications and their market situation nowadays.

Reply
07/01/2014 04:15

you always bring the most rewarding for everyone, thanks.

Reply
07/15/2014 09:34

I see the new look at the complexity

Reply
07/15/2014 09:35

good share. thank you

Reply
07/15/2014 09:37

I learned many useful things from your post. thank you

Reply
07/15/2014 09:38

good place to work smoothly and luck will come

Reply
08/06/2014 01:56

For previous periods two decades, fighting this dangerous eye sore — the scraps of arsenic, mercury, cadmium and other dangerous toxins from the fossil fuel burnt off at the Stick Run power place — has been Kathy Little’s attraction.

Reply
08/15/2014 02:12

The most powerful place where this organised real was in Wafd voting - where the "rich" and "very poor" elected at about 50 percent the amount as the other categories.

Reply
08/27/2014 02:38

nice article I like your post nice information with good detail.

Reply
08/27/2014 02:40

I like your article It is very useful for me I really like to thanks for sharing a good information.

Reply
08/27/2014 02:51

very nice great thanks

Reply

Information's realyy useful

Reply



Leave a Reply