Updated on Monday (12/17) morning, below are 8 slides covering (click on any slide for larger version):

1. Voting results: 57% said YES in Round 1
2. Projections for Round 2: Expected 30% turnout with 64% YES vote - yielding overall result, across both rounds, at 60% YES
3. Participation Rates: 32% in Round 1 - pretty low
4. Detailed/underlying data (any corrections welcome)

1. Voting Results

The voting results are compiled from the Ikhwan website (given their accuracy in presidential elections, I will use their voting data for now).  The registered voters for this referendum comes from Egypt Independent.  All other data comes from previous analyses that can be found sourced elsewhere on the website.
Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi
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Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

2. Projections for Round 2 (and more detailed results)

The below is my humble attempt at just making projections based on historic data so it obviously does not isolate certain factors that may have existed during one election vs another - more importantly, it does not factor any effects that may have taken place since the presidential elections through today and/or any effects that on the ground campaigning may have over the coming week.

It really does not entail much more than taking data and extrapolating it so take it at face value but it is interesting in either of two cases:

1. If it is right: Then we are starting to see some voting trends across governorates and parties can begin to capitalize on this and target campaigns.  Or, I just got lucky and it was some other factors/data/variables.

2. If it is wrong: Then we see deviations in Egypt's voting across the elections and it illustrates changing tendencies and fluid loyalties.  Or, my methodology/analysis was flawed.

The biggest caveat of all the analysis on this website (thus far at least) is that it is based on governorates level data and results.  For example, in Cairo there are 43 marakiz which would allow for a much more granular analysis.

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Projections Round 2

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi

3. Participation Rates

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Participation Rates
Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi Participation Rates

4. Detailed/underling data

Egypt Referendum Voting Results Morsi
Slide 3: For governorates that have not yet voted, registered voter count is based on Rnd2 of presidential elections.  For governorates that have voted already, Ahram published an atricle which had their updated registerd voter count.

Slide 8: The March 2011 referendum registered voter count is based on the parliamentary election data I found on the elections.eg website. I have not been able to find registered voters for the Mar-11 referendum, and have been told there isn't one but please let me know if you have it.
 


Comments

12/17/2012 06:04

The question you ask, 'is it all about the local?' is very important. If the local interest is the determining factor how does it explain A) decent referendum '11 turnout, and B) relatively good turnout for presidential elections C) different participation rates in the two rounds. I need polling data on attitudes to back this up, but what I've been suggesting is a 'competition effect' is responsible and your information here seems to support it. Competition in the presidential elections and the parliamentary elections was quite high, and correspondingly the turnout was high. My question then is, how has round one affected the attitudes of voters in round two? Does the ten-point gap created by round one make voters in the remaining governorates think competition is higher or lower? Yesterday I had guessed voters would see the Yes votes success on Saturday as having secured a margin guaranteeing adoption of the constitution, in turn decreasing competition, and lowering turnout below 32% which is sort of a base for two, but in itself an indicator of the entire atmosphere surrounding the vote. A lower than 32% turnout would seem to indicate to me the competition is in play. But it is obviously in contradiction to your prediction of higher turnout at 36%, however, if you're right and the natural state of turnout was always going to be higher in round two than one, but competition is seen as being decreased by round one, then perhaps we'll land right back around 32% for round two governorates.

What would be helpful is if half the round two governorates could vote first, and vice-versa, in the next election so we could compare turnout before/after with the other half acting as a control group. This would help us decide if the competition effect was driving participation up or down. Here's the post I wrote yesterday. Thanks for your work. -Troy http://troycarter.me/2012/12/16/why-many-meh-during-constitutional-referendum-in-egypt/

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12/18/2012 12:25

So what we see in Round One, and maybe carried through Round Two, is a 234-article Constitution, pushed through in three weeks, approved by 18% of the population . . . .

Which provides a rather better foundation for a crisis of legitimacy than of a government.

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11/17/2013 01:55

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11/21/2013 06:02

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12/12/2013 22:01

Hm. Are you sure? Is it proven information or just speculation?

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12/12/2013 22:06

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12/12/2013 22:07

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12/18/2013 23:06

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12/19/2013 02:53

This would help us decide if the competition effect was driving participation up or down. Here's the post I wrote yesterday. Thanks for your work.

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12/28/2013 06:35

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01/19/2014 09:54

What would be helpful is if half the round two governorates could vote first, and vice-versa, in the next election so we could compare turnout before/after with the other half acting as a control group.

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