UPDATE: Day Two "Exit Poll" Results

I will continue to post as the exit poll results come out then switch to another post to aggregate preliminary voting count results as apparently the FJP/MB organization 

1. Moussa Campaign from Twitter: Claims very close race between Morsi and Moussa (obvoiusly within the margin of error, although they don't have details on their figures to confirm that).  Moussa campaign is claiming that exit polls "are conducted by representatives in 13,000 polling stations in all governorates."

2. AlJazeera Arabic: Exit polls have a four way very close race (all of them within margin of error I would assume).  According to Jamal El Shayyal at AlJazeera the polling included 60,000 people...


Both figures are below... But again, keep in mind the exit polling industry is nascent (was somewhat of a trivial endeavor in Mubarak days) so take these results with skepticism...



So below are comparisons of three different “exit poll” (very loose use of the word!) results that I have come across this morning… See below for tables and details (click on images below the text for larger versions and links are provided to all original sources through highlighted red ink & aggregated pre-elections polls can be found here)

1.   Amr Moussa Campaign: Morsi, Moussa, Fotouh, Sabbahy, Shafiq
2.   Guy with Hala Sarhan on her show: 3 guys neck and neck, Moussa has no chance
3.   @Sandmonkey: Sabahi, Fotouh and Shafiq neck and neck then Morsi then Moussa
4.   “Rights & Citizenship Center” : Morsi & Fotouh tie, then Shafik, then Sabbahi & Moussa tie
5.   @FJPartyOrg : Corroborates Morsi lead but won't release results til after polls close


So numbers 1, 2, 4 and 5 all have Morsi in the lead or tied for it but other percentages vary. 

For Moussa Campaign polls Moussa comes in second place, while the other polls have him faring very poorly.  The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has Morsi and Aboul Fotouh tied with Shafik 

While I have never heard of them before, The "Rights and Citizenship Center" has some details of who leads in which governorates- will paste below as well. (Also, where they polled specifically)

Hala Sarhan guy (apparently from Al-Ahram center) doesn’t specifically state who is in the lead – just that Moussa is doing poorly, specifically “that Amr Moussa has no chance of winning” and that there are three people who are neck and neck in the race – Shafiq, Sabbahi and Aboul Fotouh.  

The above polling seems to corroborate with @Sandmonkey’s – as his article states :” Abol Futouh, Hamdeen & Shafik neck & neck at the top of the race. Then Morsi and fifth comes Amr Moussa.”  However, the pollster on the Hala Sarhan show did not explicitly mention that Morsi was doing poorly - just that three were neck and neck, while Moussa is doing poorly - so while not corroborating Sandmonkey's Moussa conclusion, it does not negate it per se.

Obviously the methodologies are not disclosed (guy in video mentions something about 3,000 phone calls but I believe that applies to the pre-election polling they were doing – unclear).

No official results will be announced until next week, and the early releases could be politically motivated (i.e. intended to influence the vote).

Moussa polls disclaimer: The percent of “others” was not stated in the first poll in the stayed the same as the second polling.

Participation rateshttp://www.egyptindependent.com/news/live-updates-candidates-cast-their-ballots

Abu Bakr al-Guindi, head of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), estimated that the projected turnout of the presidential election will be roughly 60%, based on voter behavior on Wednesday.

Guy in Hala Sarhan video claims that participation rates was 12% of registered voters for the first day.



Egypt President Election Polls
From "Rights and Citizenship Center" polls



Rights and Citizenship Center Details
النحو التالي :

... محافظة القاهرة :
مدرسة رفاعة الطهطاوي الابتدائية - مدينة نصر .
مدرسة الروضة الإعدادية بنين - مصر القديمة
مدرسة الجبرتي الابتدائية - منشية ناصر

محافظة الاسكندرية :
مدرسة السلام الصناعية - الرمل .
مدرسة الإخلاص الإعدادية بنات - محرم بك.
المعهد الديني الأزهري بكرموز .
مركز شباب سموحة .

محافظة الشرقية :
مدرسة السادات الإعدادية بنات - الزقازيق .
مدرسة جمال عبد الناصر الثانوية بنات - ديرب نجم.

محافظة الإسماعيلية :
مدرسة علي بن أبي طالب - أبو صوير .
مدرسة التل الكبير الابتدائية بنين .

محافظة أسوان :
مدرسة باحثة البادية الابتدائية - أسوان .
مدرسة نجع هلال الابتدائية - نجع هلال.
المدرسة الابتدائية بجزيرة سهيل - ادفو .

وشملت العينة التي أجري عليها الاستطلاع 1311 ناخبا موزعين كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة 327
محافظة الاسكندرية 414
محافظة الشرقية 275
محافظة الاسماعيلية 158
محافظة أسوان 137

وكانت النتائج العامة كالتالي :
د. محمد مرسي : 22.7%
د. عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح : 22.2%
ف . أحمد شفيق : 14.4%
أ. حمدين صباحي : 9.6%
أ. عمرو موسى : 9.4%
مرشحون آخرون : 14.8%
رفض ذكر مرشحه : 5.6%
أبطل صوته : 1.3%

بينما جاء ترتيب المرشحين في كل محافظة على حدة كالتالي :
محافظة القاهرة :
أحمد شفيق
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
محمد مرسي

محافظة الاسكندرية :
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
حمدين صباحي
محمد مرسي

محافظة الشرقية :
محمد مرسي
عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح
أحمد شفيق

محافظة الإسماعيلية:
محمد مرسي
حمدين صباحي
عمرو موسى

محافظة أسوان :
عمرو موسى
أحمد شفيق
محمد مرسي 
 
 
UPDATE 2 (Monday evening): There are a total 590,838 registered voters on the official election website and the countries that are included in the below figures account for 575,004 registered votes (i.e. the data accounts for 97% of registered voters).   The below's analysis includes vote tally of 296,232 yielding an overall participation rate of 50.1% - of registered voters.

That leaves only 11,798 registered voters remaining and, assuming an equal participation rate, would translate into 5,915 votes - which are relatively insignificant so the below can be taken as final results.  (Click on image below for much larger version).

Country by country data comes from @hany2m's Google Docs spreadsheet here
Picture
@hany2m has a great spreadsheet that provided the underlying data - country by country - for the above (http://ow.ly/b2H0Q)

UPDATE 1 (Sunday evening):
Results from Jeddah have been published here (seems pretty valid to me) - hence, I have provided an updated chart... (The actual percentages of votes by candidate are likely slightly lower as I have not included the less successful candidates in the analysis in the interest of time - these should not substantially impact the percentages though)
Older results below:
Egyptian Expat Voting Abroad President
Prior to the inclusion of Jeddah results (which had over 55,000 votes

 
 
All the polls seem to indicate is that Ahmed Shafiq is on a steady rise over the past month.  Morsi and Sabbahi also seem to be showing some improvement towards end of polling dates.  Additionally, polls also seem to show that Aboul Fotouh has had a recent decline; moreoever, while Amr Moussa is the apparent front-runner  the trending shows that he has had substantial declines across all polls.

Ahram Center, whose polls indicate that Moussa has a large lead, uses the best methodology as far as I can tell - given that they do face to face interviews whereas the others do telephone calls.  The issue is that they do not provide details about the demographic breakdown of their sample size (particularly important is the economic breakdown).

However, the other two polls indicate that Shafiq will likely be the victor (or at least garner the most votes in first round).  It is important to note though that these two polls also indicate that they derive much of their sample from the higher socio-economic portion of society - which is not directly indicative of Egypt as a whole. (Nevertheless, remember that it is voting people that count so if the voting population tends to be higher income, then these polls will be closer to reality).


One likely expanation for the large differences between Ahram and others is that, it seems, Ahram polls do not appear to give the option of undecided.  They seemed to do that in some of the polls (4/27 and 5/11 polls) but even then the figure was around 11%-12%, far below the figures seen in the other polls.  Again, poll results are largely dependent on the questions you ask and how you ask them - I would assume that is likely in play here.

For those who think polls in Egypt are useless, the below may help provide you with some backup for that.

For those who think the polls are useful, the data below may provide some useful insights.


(Click on images for larger versions...) To see preliminary results of Egyptian votes from abroad please click here
Ahram Polling Egypt
Note that the strange behavior in the beginning of April period is due to the presence of Abu Ismail and Suleiman, who were disqualified between the April 17th and April 23rd polls.

 
 
Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost. - John Adams
You can download the above document from this link here
For me it is about making a statement regarding the principles we want to see in Egypt and the vision for a future.  The dirty game of politics (campaign financing, false promises, being two faced) always weeds out the good men - we have a chance here to vote for one.

Moreover, there will most likely be a runoff election at which point you can choose the lesser of two evils; at that point when you choose the lesser of two evils, at least remember that it is still an evil. 


The only actual argument I have ever heard against Bastwisy in terms of capabilities or principles is that he is too weak to be president of this country.  However, have we not tried "strong" men across the region, for decades? How well has that served us?  Moreover, we have seen weak, sheepish men turn into strong men in their own countries, albeit negatively, as is the case with Asad in Syria.

One would hope that with fairness, justice and reformation of institutions that we could see him gain strength from the populace itself.
Platform Summary (also in document above):
  • Calls for the Egyptian military to be held accountable for crimes since taking power in February 2011
  • Labels education a top priority, and advocates free public education for all Egyptian citizens through high school
  • Says drafting a new constitution is the country’s top priority
  • Dismisses secularist fears of Islamic rule, saying that Article 2 of the 1971 Constitution makes Islamic jurisprudence the principle source but not the sole source of legislation in Egypt
  • Says renegotiating the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty is an Egyptian right, but argues canceling the treaty would damage Egypt’s international standing
  • Supports renegotiating or abolishing gas exports to Israel
  • Advocates a mixed system of presidential and parliamentary power
 
 
Click on image below for larger version
I see this directly tied to their control of the economy… Without having oversight via an independent, non-military governor there is no way that military influence is checked.  Rather, these governors facilitate the expansion of the military’s economic reach on a local level, which is compounded by their (hopefully previous) unchecked influence on the executive branch.

From January to August 2011 (appointments by Mubarak during uprising to appease demands of protesters) there were 20 military governors – constituting 74% of the total governors.  From September 2011 through today, there are 14 military governors*, constituting 54% of the total positions.

Some additional notes/caveats:

* Cairo and Alexandria, while they have non-military governors, they do have deputy governors that are military - thus, I have counted them as military governorates as I find it hard to believe that the doctors would trump the say of the military.  I could be wrong but that is my assumption for now which is reinforced by the alleged influence General Sayed El-Barie had when he was secretary general of Giza (superseding the governor himself on a decision.  

Story worth reading just to see who exactly is being appointed to these positions: When Aswan’s Sayed El-Barie was also Secretary General of Giza – and there is testimony from people at the time that he would only let projects be given to “select” companies - http://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=48491&IssueID=588)

The list in "previous governorates" column is nowhere near complete.  I was just curious as to whether there would be any cross-over from one appointment to the next and, not surprisingly, there is – and quite a bit of it at that.  The governors with previous roles written next to them are simply spot checks, I would guess that all the others have had “civilian” leadership roles in one way or another (deputy governors, secretary generals, etc.)

The New Valley governorate takes up approximately 50% (44% to be exact) of Egypt's landmass - that one is not only headed by a general, but by a (former) member of SCAF (see link)


 
 
Playlist of six videos covering Mubarak motorcades. In the first video I count about 110 vehicles (including motorcycles) and the in the second I count 83 vehicles and 12 motorcycles
It is a side point given everything else, but just another illustration of how dissociated our former leadership was with reality - the sense of self-aggrandizement and the squandering of funds that could benefit the population as a whole.  (Yes, not like these cars can feed the country but it illustrates the mentality behind purchasing decisions the government took - i.e. spare no costs for the Mubaraks).

The above video shows the sheer scale of Egypt's (i.e. Mubarak's) presidential motorcade, it is almost unfathomable.  Many of us have been stuck in traffic for hours (I can remember several myself) due to his royal highness' desire to go from point A to point B.  

“When Mr Mubarak travelled his entourage included scores of cars. Any time he crossed Cairo, much of the capital would be roped off with traffic stopped for half an hour before he passed and 10,000 policemen standing along the route. Sharp shooters stood on the rooftops, a helicopter circled overhead and an ambulance accompanied him. A recent inventory of the presidential vehicle pool under Mr Mubarak released in Egyptian newspapers said that it included 950 vehicles. Other African leaders might well note, however, that Mr Mubarak is no longer in power.”

So in the video above he merely took out a little less than 10% of the total inventory.  Just for comparison's sake, compare this to other world leaders:



1. President of the United States:  Wikipedia states that the presidential motorcade consists of "about 45 vehicles" - I have seen the president drive back into the White House and the number was considerably less than that but I guess it depends on the occasion.

2. France: Based on this video, there appear to be about 10 vehicles and 5 motorcycles

3. Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni:  Takes between eight or nine cars, a couple of mine-resistant South African armoured personnel carriers and a large silver Mercedes truck with a mobile lavatory

4. Liberian president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf: On a trip to church he took three four-wheel-drives from the Special Security Service, two pickup trucks from the Liberian national police, and an off-roader carrying Nigerian troops from the United Nations peacekeeping mission

5. Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe:  Travels with two motorcyclists up front who clear the road, arriving at high speed then stopping by their road, their lights flashing and sirens blaring. Three blacked-out Mercedes saloons follow, one with the number plate "Zim1". Finally two pick-up trucks appear, with ten or more armed guards in them.

6. King Mswati III of Swaziland. The Swazi regal convoy can be up to 20 cars long. The king's favourite vehicles include a $625,000 Rolls Royce, a $500,000 Maybach 62 and a BMW X6. He also has 20 Mercedes Benz S600 Pullman Guards, costing $250,000 each, many of them armoured. Warrior guards in traditional dress including an "Emajobo" or loin skin travel with the king.

7. Sierra Leone's Koroma: "motorcyclist came first. Mr Koroma followed in a Mercedes saloon. Most of the other six vehicles in the procession were gleaming black 70 Series Toyota Land Cruisers."
8. Valdimir Putin, Russia: Finally, found someone to compete with our scale.  This video here shows about 85 vehicles (and seems there were some more following), others show about 30-50 (here and here)... I suppose we kept that tradition from our alliance to the USSR days...

9. Saudi Arabia's King Abdallah: The videos make it hard to count (as they are filmed from within) but looks to be quite the motorcade... (See here, here and here)

Source: Economist article for Mubarak and African leaders

 
 
While I am not saying that the MB are already the NDP, one cannot deny that granting the group complete control over the executive and legislative branches of government (taking into account the historic lack of judiciary to be indpendent) will inevitably lead to a similar political situation.  

Let us stop relying on new names/faces to be better than those before them rather than changing the system to ensure that the new politicians cannot repeat past transgressions.  Ensuring competition and setting up checks/balances is the first step in doing so.

I tend to believe that, if Clinton, Kennedy, Chirac, etc. - or most "great" world leaders - were in systems that enabled them to be dictators and command unbridled power they would have.  It is not that French or American or Indian politicians are inherently "better" or less corrupt than their Egyptian counterparts but rather that the system is setup to prevent them from indulging in these tendencies.
  • Active competition weakens the ability of any one interest or faction to dominate its own arena and to intrude unduly upon the workings of the other. Moreover, citizens who have real economic and political alternatives will be less vulnerable to exploitation, and thus in a better position to resist corruption and respond effectively to it. 
  • In the US,  the seperation of powers and bicameralism are competitive devices, as are the system of checks and balances implemented through the constitution.
  • When protected from competition, even talented and well-intentioned public officials are motivated to act in ways intended to increase their income, authority, prestige, or leisure (Borcherding 1977). 
  • Competition brings out the best in people and organizations, not because it appeals to greed or selfishness, but because the desire to innovate, earn the esteem of others, and be best in one’s field is deeply and widely instilled (Olson 2000; Novak 1996).
  • “[Competition is] superior not only because it is in most circumstances the most efficient method known but even more because it is the only method by which our activities can be adjusted to each other without coercive or arbitrary intervention of authority.” (Hayek, The Road to Serfdom)
  • "Democracy is a competitive political system in which competing leaders and organizations define the alternatives of public policy in such a way that the public can participate in the decision-making process." (Schattschneider, 1960)
  • "Modern political democracy is a system of governance in which rulers are held accountable for their actions in the public realm by citizens, acting indirectly through the competition and cooperation of their elected representatives." (Schmitter and Karl, 1991)
Ideally, over time an independent judiciary would help accomplish this (as occurred in the US during Marbury vs. Madison legal battle) in which "Chief Justice John Marshall established the principle of judicial review, an important addition to the system of “checks and balances” created to prevent any one branch of the Federal Government from becoming too powerful."  However, it is important to note that the judiciary as a third branch of government was not ingrained in the US constitution but rather was fought for by the courts themselves.